A new nuclear arms race is beginning and it will be far more dangerous than the last one

Jessica T Mathews in The Guardian:

Decades of agonisingly difficult negotiations built up a dense structure of treaties, agreements and even a few unilateral moves dealing with offensive and defensive nuclear weapons of short, medium and long range, with provisions for testing, inspections and an overflight regime for mutual observation. Often the two sides would only give up systems they no longer wanted. Frequently the language of the agreements was the basis of future friction. On the US side, the political price of securing Senate ratification of treaties could be extremely high.

But for all its shortcomings, arms control brought down the total number of nuclear weapons held by the two countries from 60,000 to roughly 11,000 today. (The exact number is classified.) Under the most recent treaty, New Start (strategic arms reduction treaty), signed in 2010, each side is limited to 1,550 deployed weapons, with the rest in storage. By any accounting, that 80% drop (95% counting just deployed weapons) is – or was – a notable achievement.

Unfortunately, the past tense is correct, because since the US withdrew from the anti-ballistic missile (ABM) treaty in 2002 – thereby legitimising the unilateral renunciation of an agreement by one party if it no longer finds the restrictions to its taste – the other agreements have fallen one by one.

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“Multiple Worlds Vying to Exist”: Philip K. Dick and Palestine

Jonathan Lethem at The Paris Review:

Dick’s use of the name New Israel in Martian Time-Slip is pretty stock. Dick traveled beyond North America only once, to a conference in Metz, France, where he delivered a legendary speech titled “If You Find This World Bad, You Should See Some of the Others”—baffling his French fans by opening an early window into the mystical, visionary search that would preoccupy him for the remainder of his life. Then he went home to Orange County, California. His impression of Israel may essentially be derived from Leon Uris’s Exodus, or from some other heroic fifties representation; he principally employs the Israelis in Martian Time-Slip as an anonymous and implacable counterpoint to the abject ineptitude of the U.S. colonists—to highlight the haplessness of their attempts to farm and irrigate the harsh Martian desertscape. As in the excerpt above, the Israelis present a mirror for shame. This matches, of course, a typical midcentury U.S. liberal’s reaction formation, after the discovery of the German and Polish death camps: the Jew as shame trigger, with the survivors idealized for their resilience and strength.

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How Kepler Invented Science Fiction and Defended His Mother in a Witchcraft Trial…

Maria Popova at The Marginalian:

The year is 1617. His name is Johannes Kepler (December 27, 1571–November 15, 1630) — perhaps the unluckiest man in the world, perhaps the greatest scientist who ever lived. He inhabits a world in which God is mightier than nature, the Devil realer and more omnipresent than gravity. All around him, people believe that the sun revolves around the Earth every twenty-four hours, set into perfect circular motion by an omnipotent creator; the few who dare support the tendentious idea that the Earth rotates around its axis while revolving around the sun believe that it moves along a perfectly circular orbit. Kepler would disprove both beliefs, coin the word orbit, and quarry the marble out of which classical physics would be sculpted. He would be the first astronomer to develop a scientific method of predicting eclipses and the first to link mathematical astronomy to material reality — the first astrophysicist — by demonstrating that physical forces move the heavenly bodies in calculable ellipses. All of this he would accomplish while drawing horoscopes, espousing the spontaneous creation of new animal species rising from bogs and oozing from tree bark, and believing the Earth itself to be an ensouled body that has digestion, that suffers illness, that inhales and exhales like a living organism.

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Exhuming Dracula’s Ancestors

Ed Simon at Lit Hub:

The vampire as it’s developed over the past century of popular culture, from Dracula onward, is different from the folkloric eastern European creature—a gloaming animal of the night, subaltern to humanity—though elements have obviously been preserved. Stoker’s titular count is arguably as super-human as he is monstrous. “I am Dracula; and I bid you welcome,” the Transylvanian count tells Jonathan Harker, the English solicitor organizing the sale of London real estate to the undead aristocrat. “Come in, the night air is chill, and you must need to eat and rest.” Where the skeletons in that Bulgarian basement were of people understood (fairly or not) by their neighbors as feral, rabid, and wild, Dracula is urbane and sophisticated, cosmopolitan and sexy.

Endlessly beguiling, evocative, intoxicating, and charismatic, Dracula is the rare monster whom somebody would actually want to imitate, actually want to be. Nobody desires to be Frankenstein’s monster, hobbled together from putrid, stinking cadaver sections, or a mummy wrapped in bandages, whereas Dracula remains a gothic touchstone for a reason.

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Monday, November 18, 2024

The nature of natural laws

Mario Hubert in Aeon:

The Sun rises every day. Water boils at 100°C. Apples fall to the ground. We live in a world in which objects behave the same given the same circumstances. We can imagine living in a different world: a world that constantly changes, a world in which the Sun does not rise every day, a world in which water one day boils at 50°C, and at 120°C another day, a world in which apples sometimes fall from trees and sometimes rise into the sky. Only because we live in a world that displays stable regularities are we able to reliably shape our environment and plan our lives.

We have an intuition that these regularities are due to laws of nature, but we normally do not interrogate what these laws are and how they work in any basic metaphysical sense. Instead, we assume that science not only provides these laws but also elucidates their structure and metaphysical status, even when the answers seem partial at best. In short, we assume that, thanks to science, there is a recipe of sorts for how the laws of nature work. You take the state of the Universe at a given moment – every single fact about every single aspect of it – and combine it with the laws of nature, then assume that these will reveal, or at least determine, the state of the Universe in the moment that comes next.

I refer to this as the layer-cake model of the Universe, which dates back to the 17th-century philosopher René Descartes.

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A.I. Chatbots Defeated Doctors at Diagnosing Illness

Gina Kolata in the New York Times:

Dr. Adam Rodman, an expert in internal medicine at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston, confidently expected that chatbots built to use artificial intelligence would help doctors diagnose illnesses.

He was wrong.

Instead, in a study Dr. Rodman helped design, doctors who were given ChatGPT-4 along with conventional resources did only slightly better than doctors who did not have access to the bot. And, to the researchers’ surprise, ChatGPT alone outperformed the doctors.

“I was shocked,” Dr. Rodman said.

The chatbot, from the company OpenAI, scored an average of 90 percent when diagnosing a medical condition from a case report and explaining its reasoning. Doctors randomly assigned to use the chatbot got an average score of 76 percent. Those randomly assigned not to use it had an average score of 74 percent.

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AI poetry rated better than poems written by humans

Ella Creamer in The Guardian:

Poems written by AI are preferred to those written by humans, according to a new study. The non-expert poetry readers who participated were more likely to judge AI-generated poems as being written by humans than those actually written by humans. The study, conducted by researchers at the University of Pittsburgh, showed participants poems written by 10 famous English-language poets along with poems generated in the style of those poets by ChatGPT 3.5. Real and imitation poems by Geoffrey Chaucer, William Shakespeare, Samuel Butler, Lord Byron, Walt Whitman, Emily Dickinson, TS Eliot, Allen Ginsberg, Sylvia Plath and Dorothea Lasky were presented to participants.

Results showed that the odds of a poem written by a human being judged as human-authored were roughly 75% that of an AI-generated poem being judged as human-authored. Contrary to previous research, the study also found that participants ranked AI-generated poems higher in terms of overall quality than human-written poems.

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Fat cells have a ‘memory’ of obesity — hinting at why it’s hard to keep weight off

Traci Watson in Nature:

Even after drastic weight loss, the body’s fat cells carry the ‘memory’ of obesity, research1 shows — a finding that might help to explain why it can be hard to stay trim after a weight-loss programme. This memory arises because the experience of obesity leads to changes in the epigenome — a set of chemical tags that can be added to or removed from cells’ DNA and proteins that help to dial gene activity up or down. For fat cells, the shift in gene activity seems to render them incapable of their normal function. This impairment, as well as the changes in gene activity, can linger long after weight has dropped to healthy levels, a study published today in Nature reports.

The results suggest that people trying to slim down will often require long-term care to avoid weight regain, says study co-author Laura Hinte, a biologist at ETH Zurich in Switzerland. “It means that you need more help, potentially,” she says. “It’s not your fault.” Although we’ve long known that the body tends to revert to obesity after weight loss, “how and why this happens was almost like a black box”, says Hyun Cheol Roh, an epigenome specialist at Indiana University School of Medicine in Indianapolis who studies metabolism. The new results “show what’s happening at the molecular level, and that’s really cool”.

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Fighting the Far Right in India

Sarah Thankam Mathews at Lux:

On June 14 of this year, Delhi Lieutenant Governor V.K. Saxena authorized the prosecution of author Arundhati Roy and Kashmir-based academic Sheikh Showkat Hussain for speeches they made in 2010 about the disputed territory of Kashmir. Put otherwise, the Indian government charged a world-famous author and activist under a stringent antiterrorism law, the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA).

Roy, known for her fearless provocations and truth-telling on a range of socio-political issues, including Kashmir, tribal rights, and government policies, has often been at odds with the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The use of the UAPA, which allows for lengthy pre-trial detention without the possibility of bail, against activists and organizers is particularly concerning to human rights advocates. Roy has not (at least at the time of writing) been jailed, but the charges against her are an alarming example of a broader trend of shrinking space for dissent and the suppression of civil liberties in contemporary India.

Among those who are quite worried is the Mumbai-based journalist and author Raghu Karnad.  Karnad wrote the award-winning book Farthest Field: An Indian Story of the Second World War. He has worked as a reporter and editor for various publications, including The Wire and The Hindu. This summer we got on Zoom and talked it out.

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Sunday, November 17, 2024

The Needy Genius Who Understood the Cosmos (People, Not So Much)

Jennifer Szalai in The New York Times:

The Science Museum in Britain holds numerous items associated with the Nobel Prize-winning mathematical physicist Sir Roger Penrose: books on consciousness and the nature of space and time; a set of wooden puzzles made by his physician father; a model of one of the Penroses’ “impossible objects” — a staircase on which a person could ascend or descend forever.

But maybe the most extraordinary item is also the most ordinary: a four-pack of Kleenex Quilted Peach Toilet Tissue. The quilting was based on one of Penrose’s non-repeating tiling patterns in order to avoid “nesting,” which would have risked stuck squares and unsightly bulges in the roll — yet nobody from Kleenex had consulted Penrose. In 1997, Pentaplex, a company set up to develop commercial applications of his work, sued the toilet paper’s manufacturer, Kimberly Clark. As a Pentaplex director announced at the time: “When it comes to the population of Great Britain being invited to wipe their bottoms on what appears to be the work of a knight of the realm without his permission, then a last stand must be made.”

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Eddie Redmayne and the art of obsession

Thomas Floyd in The Washington Post:

Most conversations about Eddie Redmayne’s craft, whether you’re chatting with the Oscar winner himself or one of his collaborators, will invariably include the word “meticulous.” Or “granular.” Maybe “methodical.” One way or another, expect to hear about an attention to detail which, Redmayne concedes, may occasionally border on extreme.

Meticulous,” the 42-year-old actor says through sheepish laughter, “is a kind word.”

Take Redmayne’s role as a chameleonic hit man in “The Day of the Jackal,” the new Peacock limited series based on Frederick Forsyth’s 1971 novel. To inhabit the elusive Jackal — a globe-trotting killer with a fondness of clandestine weapons and identity-concealing prostheses — Redmayne trained with British Armed Forces alumnus Paul Biddiss and others in the art of espionage.

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Three Liberalisms

Michael A. McCarthy in Sidecar:

Trump’s crushing victory over Harris casts serious doubt on one of the darling concepts of American political science: ‘polarization’. As of the latest count, Trump won the popular vote by over 3.5 million, capturing most swing states and flipping those that went for Biden in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Voters thought to be entrenched in separate camps defied psephologists’ predictions by crossing from one to the other. Dominated by the Democrats for two election cycles, urban counties swung to Trump by 5.8 points, while suburban counties that went blue for Biden shifted red by 4.4 points. Both less-educated and more-educated counties also trended towards Trump (by 5.2 and 4.6 points respectively), as did most non-white groups: Hispanic-majority counties (13.3 points), indigenous counties (10 points) and black-majority counties (2.7 points). Trump even did better among women, who shifted 5 points to the right relative to 2020.

The president-elect now enters the White House enraged by his court battles and emboldened by a significant mandate. His party, having purged most of the Never Trumpers and replaced them with loyalists, is on the verge of controlling all the branches of government: a supermajority on the Supreme Court, a 3-seat majority in the Senate and likely a slim one in the House. The Democrats may still storm back in a few years’ time, as they have done after previous routs. But their fortunes will depend on how they adapt politically. What is the outlook for their particular brand of liberalism in the wake of this defeat?

An unlikely theoretical resource for understanding the American political scene can be found in Tosaka Jun’s The Japanese Ideology: A Marxist Critique of Liberalism and Fascism, first published in 1935 and now available in English thanks to Robert Stolz’s recent translation.

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Europe Can’t “Trump-Proof” Itself

Hans Kundnani in Dissent:

During the past year, as the reality gradually dawned on them that Donald Trump might be re-elected as U.S. president, European foreign policy analysts coalesced around the conventional wisdom that Europe must unite and “Trump-proof” itself. This new consensus, which essentially repeats arguments for European “strategic autonomy” that took place after Trump was elected the first time, represents an extraordinary collective failure. Europe’s foreign policy experts have proved unable to think clearly about what has changed in Europe in the last eight years or about the relationship between their own security concerns and those of Ukraine.

The election of Trump in 2016 created radical uncertainty about the U.S. security guarantee to Europe, which went back to the creation of NATO in 1949. While some Atlanticists insisted that NATO countries should hug the United States close—and make concessions like increasing defense spending and buying more American weapons to placate Trump—“post-Atlanticists” urged Europeans to end their dependence on the United States for their own security. If the former tendency was embodied by Poland (where the far-right Law and Justice Party was in power), the latter was embodied by France, and Germany was somewhere in the middle.

Post-Atlanticists have responded to the possibility of a second Trump presidency by simply reiterating the need for strategic autonomy, even if they don’t always use that term. But the experience of the first Trump administration suggests that Europeans are unlikely to unite in response to his re-election.

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Goodbye, Gibbon

Iza Ding in The Ideas Letter:

Sometime in the mid-12th century, a Chinese poet named Lin Sheng traveled 365 kilometers from his hometown Pingyang to Lin’an—what is now Hangzhou, a city on the southeast coast, where the tech giant Alibaba is based.

Lin stayed at a B&B and roamed the city for days. He climbed various hills, drifted through Buddhist temples, sampled an assortment of crabs, shrimps, lamb, and sweet rice, all marinated in alcohol—a culinary specialty of the region—and, like today’s tourists, spent a significant amount of time on and around the impossibly beautiful West Lake, the sin and soul of Hangzhou.

Hangzhou is glorious on summer nights. The lake lies sultrily within the warm embrace of the hills, blue as sapphire. When the breezes pick up in the evening, as they always do, the water undulates like dancers’ long, silky sleeves, gleaming with reflections of candles in the boats and pavilions, homes on the hills, and lanterns carried by residents. And there was singing and dancing, lots of singing and dancing, deep into the orange night. Our delicate poet found himself both entranced and uneasy.

One morning, after the merriment had melted into dawn, Lin rose from his bed, inked his brush, and wrote on his chamber wall. This tiny poem, 28 characters light, would be memorized by every schoolchild in China almost a millennium later.

Hills beyond blue hills,
Pavilions beyond pavilions.
When will the singing and dancing on West Lake cease?
Travelers, drunk on a warm breeze,
Have mistaken Hangzhou for Bianzhou.

Bianzhou is today’s Kaifeng city, 900 kilometers southwest of Hangzhou in the inland province of Henan. Kaifeng’s GDP per capita in 2023 was about $7,500, one-third of Hangzhou’s.

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Weaponizing Aid

Jack Gross and Dylan Saba interview Lisa Bhungalia in Phenomenal World:

On October 28, the Israeli Knesset voted to shut down the operations of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) and to designate it as a terrorist organization. While this drastic attack on the UN was met with widespread condemnation from the international community, it was not wholly unexpected. For decades, Israel has regarded the number one provider of education and humanitarian services to the Palestinians of Gaza with contempt and suspicion. Just earlier this year, in response to still-unsubstantiated Israeli allegations that UNRWA employees took part in the October 7 attacks, the United States led a series of countries in terminating funding to the UN organization.

The month of October marked a sustained escalation of the Israeli genocide in Gaza, with particular brutality inflicted on Palestinians in the northern Strip. Amid scenes of devastation, bound and blindfolded men, and expulsion marches, the sustained deprivation of aid has caused yet more widespread suffering. A letter from the United States issued on October 13 warned of consequences should the Israeli government not increase aid flows into Gaza in the following thirty days. The deadline has passed, with aid at its lowest level in eleven months, and no consequence has been forthcoming.

To understand the relationship of Israel and the US to UNRWA, its place within the broader ecosystem of aid organizations across Palestine, and the weaponization and politicization of aid delivery, we spoke with Lisa Bhungalia, author of the recent book Elastic Empire: Refashioning War Through Aid in Palestine.

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