Donald Ingber in The Scientist:
In April of this year, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced a new roadmap that aims to replace animal testing in the development of new drugs with more human-relevant methods. The goal is to improve drug safety, accelerate the evaluation process, shorten drug development timelines, reduce costs, and spare animal lives. The FDA aims to make animal testing the exception rather than the norm within three to five years. Is this possible?
The FDA has required animal testing of new drugs since the 1930s after more than 125 American adults and children died after ingesting an antibiotic elixir that mistakenly contained the poison found in antifreeze—diethylene glycol—which was then thought to be just a sweetening agent. Animal testing remains the mainstay of drug evaluations by the FDA, and it undoubtedly has helped prevent other potentially dangerous chemicals from reaching patients. However, on the flip side, the results of drug tests in animals fail to predict future responses in humans more than 90 percent of the time.1 It is also likely that many drugs that could have been safe and effective in humans never received approval because they were found to be toxic in early animal studies. Aspirin is a great example; we are all lucky because it was first marketed before 1900.
More here.
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Finally, the vacation you’ve been waiting for is happening tomorrow. You and your friends are going on a two-week cruise, free of responsibilities and full of fun. You’re starting to pack when you feel a little bit lightheaded. You don’t think much of it because you’ve been stressed lately trying to get ready for the trip. Later, you start coughing. Probably just allergies, you think to yourself as you go about your day. When you wake up in the morning – the day of the trip – you have a sore throat and chills. You briefly think to yourself: This feels like it could be COVID. Maybe I should take a self-test. You start walking to your medicine cabinet, but then you pause. If you test positive, you’ll feel obliged to isolate from others and miss the trip. You’ve spent so much time thinking about the trip and paid a lot for the tickets. Your friends will be disappointed. I’m sure I’m fine. You decide it’s better not to know.
A senior researcher at Microsoft tells me that the sale of TikTok is more momentous to the fate of American democracy than the mobbing of the Capitol on January 6, 2021. He argues that the latter was a circumscribed event, while the enforced sale of TikTok will put the eyeballs of 170 million American users under the control of one of the two or three bidders already wealthy enough to buy it—such as Elon Musk. I find this view awfully grim, not because Musk has too many conflicts of interest to be a benign presence in government but because I find it dismaying that “American democracy” should occur in the same sentence with “TikTok,” let alone be identified with it. If the fate of American democracy rests on the ownership of TikTok, then maybe the towel has already been thrown in.
Many readers of this particular Substack may already realize that its very name—“Wondercabinet”—wends back, in terms of my own lifework, to my days covering the then-barely-nascent Museum of Jurassic Technology, for what became my 1995 book
Eddington
We’re living longer than ever—but those extra years aren’t unfolding the way many hoped. Instead of later years spent thriving, millions are instead facing
It’s now almost a reflex: An election is held, and someone pushes the big, red Death of Democracy panic button. When Donald Trump won in 2016, liberals saw a gold-plated Adolf Hitler in a red baseball cap. Then Joe Biden took over and conservatives warned of Joseph Stalin or Pol Pot reborn, an America where your kids would be forced to go to gay camp and pray to RuPaul before lunch. (They’re panicking again with Zohran Mamdani in New York’s mayoral race.) Now, we have Trump redux. The hysterias flip, but the impulse stays the same: to imagine top-down tyranny as a looming catastrophe.