The Peril Of Catastrophism

Ted Nordhaus at the New Atlantis:

In these cases, climate science theory and observations are well aligned. Climate change has increased the frequency of extreme heat events and decreased the frequency of extreme cold events. It has led to global sea level rise and glacial melting. At the regional level, some areas have also seen increases in phenomena like extreme precipitation events that are very directly linked to warming global temperatures.

But for most climate and weather phenomena, the effects are much more complicated and don’t always run in the same direction. Warmer surface and ocean temperatures, for instance, produce more rain from hurricanes, because warmer air can hold more water vapor. But climate change can also create countervailing factors, such as increases in wind shear, which may make it harder for hurricanes to develop and persist, and decrease their frequency.

Media accounts have been quick to tie hurricanes and other complex phenomena to climate change. But there is little data to suggest, thus far, that these events have actually gotten worse.

more here.

Thursday, March 14, 2024

Gabriel García Márquez’s Last Book

Michael Greenberg at the NYT:

What is most jarring is that the story has all the hallmarks of García Márquez; despite its deficiencies, the writing is unmistakably his. At its center is Ana Magdalena Bach, who is a virgin when she marries and remains contentedly faithful to her husband until, at 46, she embarks on a series of explosive one-night stands, a new one each year. She meets the men, all of them strangers, during solo visits to the Caribbean island where her mother is buried. Without fail, every Aug. 16 she lays a bouquet of fresh gladioli on her mother’s grave, clears the weeds that have sprung up around the stone and quickly fills her mother in on the latest family news. Then she gets down to the serious business of finding a partner until morning, when a ferry will take her back to the mainland.

Her first tryst is with a silver-haired “Hispanic gringo” she picks up at her hotel bar. The sex is impersonal and, for Ana, immensely exciting: She “devoured him for her own pleasure not even thinking of his.” The next morning she’s appalled to discover he left her a $20 bill. The insult infuriates her and she is tormented by both a wish for revenge and the desire to repeat the evening.

more here.

Ten Years Without Gabriel García Márquez

Silvana Paternostro at the Paris Review:

Gabriel García Márquez died ten years ago this April, but people all over the world continue to be stunned, moved, seduced, and transformed by the beauty of his writing and the wildness of his imagination. He is the most translated Spanish-language author of this past century, and in many ways, rightly or wrongly, the made-up Macondo of One Hundred Years of Solitude has come to define the image of Latin America—especially for those of us from the Colombian Caribbean.

I have been writing about Gabo since 1995, when I met him for three days during a journalism workshop he led and decided that he himself would make an interesting subject. Colombia’s god of magical realism reminded me of my grandfather, I wrote in my first piece about him, which was later published in the Winter 1996 issue of The Paris Review. In the early 2000s, I began interviewing his friends, family, fans, and naysayers for an oral biography that appeared in an early form in the magazine’s Summer 2003 issue

more here.

Reckoning with the Samuel Moyn’s post-Holocaust liberals

Ohad Reiss-Sorokin in The Hedgehog Review:

Hollywood rarely shops for film rights at academic presses. Yet if Samuel Moyn’s thought-provoking new book, Liberalism Against Itself, were adapted into a movie, I would recommend making it a courtroom drama.

Imagine Moyn, professor of law and history at Yale University, as the prosecutor, approaching the bench with a steady step, looking at the jury, and reading the opening statement. “Cold War liberalism,” he says, beginning with the main defendant, “was a catastrophe.” Then he takes a deep breath before naming the victim—“for liberalism.” The indictment is long and detailed: Cold War liberalism abandoned what Moyn describes as liberalism’s original goals of “perfectionism” and the “highest of life.” It made us suspicious of any progressive historical change, replaced promises of global freedom with a “West versus the Rest” narrative, and, finally, supported a harsh regime of self-discipline as a precondition for freedom. Its champions persisted in an attitude of skepticism, even paranoia, toward the state, despite living in “the most ambitious and interventionist and largest—as well as the most egalitarian and redistributive—liberal states that had ever existed.” Their ignorance, prosecutor Moyn argues, left welfare states without intellectual backing as they fell prey to the neoliberals of the late twentieth century, who sought to dismantle the social safety net and economic regulation.

More here.

Mathematicians are working to fully explain unusual behaviors uncovered using artificial intelligence

Lyndie Chiou in Quanta:

Understanding elliptic curves is a high-stakes endeavor that has been central to math. So in 2022, when a transatlantic collaboration used statistical techniques and artificial intelligence to discover completely unexpected patterns in elliptic curves, it was a welcome, if unexpected, contribution. “It was just a matter of time before machine learning landed on our front doorstep with something interesting,” said Peter Sarnak, a mathematician at the Institute for Advanced Study and Princeton University. Initially, nobody could explain why the newly discovered patterns exist. Since then, in a series of recent papers, mathematicians have begun to unlock the reasons behind the patterns, dubbed “murmurations” for their resemblance to the fluid shapes of flocking starlings, and have started to prove that they must occur not only in the particular examples examined in 2022, but in elliptic curves more generally.

More here.

Why the world cannot afford the rich

Richard G. Wilkinson & Kate E. Pickett in Nature:

As environmental, social and humanitarian crises escalate, the world can no longer afford two things: first, the costs of economic inequality; and second, the rich. Between 2020 and 2022, the world’s most affluent 1% of people captured nearly twice as much of the new global wealth created as did the other 99% of individuals put together, and in 2019 they emitted as much carbon dioxide as the poorest two-thirds of humanity. In the decade to 2022, the world’s billionaires more than doubled their wealth, to almost US$12 trillion.

The evidence gathered by social epidemiologists, including us, shows that large differences in income are a powerful social stressor that is increasingly rendering societies dysfunctional. For example, bigger gaps between rich and poor are accompanied by higher rates of homicide and imprisonment. They also correspond to more infant mortality, obesity, drug abuse and COVID-19 deaths, as well as higher rates of teenage pregnancy and lower levels of child well-being, social mobility and public trust.

More here.

A New Wave of Movies Finds an Unexpected Way of Capturing the 2020s

Sam Adams in Slate:

Sam Crane was in the middle of doing Macbeth when the bullets started flying. A veteran of the British stage, Crane was on the verge of playing the lead in the London production of Harry Potter and the Cursed Child when COVID-19 shut down live performances, and by the U.K.’s third lockdown, he was itching for an audience. So instead of playing to a West End crowd, he found himself orating to a smattering of heavily armed lawbreakers inside the video game Grand Theft Auto. “If I could just request that you refrain from killing each other,” he calls out amid the tomorrows and tomorrows. “And don’t kill the actors either!”

The death-defying soliloquy is part of Grand Theft Hamlet, a poignant and deeply hilarious documentary that chronicles the attempt of Crane and his friend Mark Oosterveen to stage a full-fledged Shakespeare production inside the world of Grand Theft Auto. Co-directed by Crane and his partner, Pinny Grylls, the result plays like a cross between Waiting for Guffman and a YouTube playthrough, multiplying the challenges of no-budget theater by the chaos of online interaction. Potential actors pop in and out without warning, or grow bored and simply start shooting. Not even the Globe’s audience was quite so unruly.

More here.

Bringing Immunotherapy Straight to the Source

Aparna Nathan in The Scientist:

In cancer immunotherapy, T cells are often the stars of the show. Many immune checkpoint blockade drugs keep cancer cells from evading T cells, and cellular immunotherapies arm T cells with chimeric antigen receptors (CAR). But Mattias Carlsten, a hematologist at the Karolinska Institute, switched to studying natural killer (NK) cells when he realized that they offered a unique opportunity to treat blood cancers like acute myeloid leukemia (AML).  Previous studies reported that NK cells are unique in that they target cancer cells without any prior training or specially engineered molecules like CAR.1 But NK cells did not efficiently penetrate the bone marrow, which as the source of AML cells, was a prime target for lasting treatment.

In a study published in the journal Leukemia, Carlsten’s team described a new way to engineer NK cells to head straight to the source for more potent anticancer immunity.2 By modifying molecules on the NK cells’ surfaces, they ensured that the immune cells homed to the bone marrow to hunt down cancerous cells. Carlsten thinks that this approach, which leverages molecules already found on NK cells, could make NK cell therapies a reality for blood cancers. “As a researcher, I like to capitalize on normal biology and take it from one context to another,” Carlsten said. In this study, the normal biology is two important cell surface molecules involved in NK cell function. First, Carlsten’s team focused on a receptor that binds the molecule E-selectin. In people with AML, bone marrow blood vessels increase E-selectin expression, which triggers signals that send the cancerous blood cells into a dormant state.3 The cells’ lack of activity hides them from chemotherapy, which targets dividing cells.   “If this is happening, why don’t we utilize this cue to home the NK cells better to this particular subsite of the microenvironment where the AML cells are?” Carlsten said.

More here.

Thursday Poem

Girl

Between the afternoon, resisting,
and the night, gathering,
the gaze of a young girl.

She abandons her notebook and writing,
all of her being in two fixed eyes.
On the wall the light cancels itself.

Does she see her end or her beginning?
She’ll say she sees nothing.
The infinite is transparent.

She’ll never know what she saw.

by Octavio Paz
from
The Collected Poems, 1957-1987
Carcanet, 1987
……~~~~~

Original Spanish:

Niña

Entre la tarde que se obstina
y la noche que se acumula
hay la mirada de una niña.

Deja el cuaderno y la escritura,
todo su ser dos ojos fijose.
En la pared la luz se anula.

¿Mira su fin o su principio?
Ella dirá que no ve nada.
Es transparente el infinito.

Nunca sabrá que lo miraba.

Wednesday, March 13, 2024

The Story Behind the New York Times October 7 Exposé

Jeremy Scahill, Ryan Grim, and Daniel Boguslaw at The Intercept:

Anat Schwartz had a problem. The Israeli filmmaker and former air force intelligence official had been assigned by the New York Times to work with her partner’s nephew Adam Sella and veteran Times reporter Jeffrey Gettleman on an investigation into sexual violence by Hamas on October 7 that could reshape the way the world understood Israel’s ongoing war in the Gaza Strip. By November, global opposition was mounting against Israel’s military campaign, which had already killed thousands of children, women, and the elderly. On her social media feed, which the Times has since said it is reviewing, Schwartz liked a tweet saying that Israel needed to “turn the strip into a slaughterhouse.”

“Violate any norm, on the way to victory,” read the post. “Those in front of us are human animals who do not hesitate to violate minimal rules.”

The New York Times, however, does have rules and norms. Schwartz had no prior reporting experience.

More here.

AI and the Future of Work

Tomas Pueyo in Uncharted Territories:

The new Claude that was just released defines itself as self-aware.

Of course, Claude and similar LLMs are just next-word predictors. They are not self-aware. They were just fed all the science-fiction about AIs and their takeover, and they regurgitate that. For a real LLM to become self-aware, it would need to be more intelligent than humans and be able to self-improve. They aren’t, and they can’t. Right? Right?!

OK so Anthropic’s latest Claude is now more intelligent than the average human being according to Mensa tests. Faaaantastic.

But they can’t self-improve, can they? Well, researchers are working on it. I think we’re months away from AIs that can start improving themselves, if we’re not there already.

More here.

Will Today’s Tech Wave Drown Developing Countries?

Xiaolan Fu at Project Syndicate:

We are living through humanity’s fourth industrial revolution, which is largely driven by breakthroughs in digital technologies. Some, like the internet and artificial intelligence, are converging and amplifying each other, with far-reaching consequences for economies and societies. For developing countries, the implications are profound, and questions concerning policy choices and the “appropriateness” of new technologies have become urgent.

Even if new technologies seem likely to fuel unemployment and deepen income inequality, no country can simply reject them outright. Instead, policymakers must understand the multifaceted and complex nature of a technology’s appropriateness (or inappropriateness) for development, and then pursue nuanced responses that aim to maximize the benefits and minimize the harms.

In development economics, an appropriate technology is defined as one tailored to fit the psychosocial and biophysical context prevailing in a particular location and period.

More here.

Fasting for Ramadan While Gaza Goes Hungry

Zaina Arafat in The New Yorker:

It’s difficult to imagine Ramadan in Gaza this year. I want to imagine that, even at a time of devastation and deprivation, a personal act of sacrifice can still lend purpose to senselessness. Maybe it can give powerless people a small sense of control. When you fast, you can think, I chose this hunger; it was not forced on me. But maybe that’s wishful thinking. Hunger is painful. It is one of our most primal desires, and the most human; inflicting it on someone else can seem inhuman. The only antidote is to eat. And in the same way that food brings people together I wonder whether its absence keeps us apart. Hunger makes us weak, and not only physically. It cuts us off from the strength that comes from being together.

More here.

Why are so many young people getting cancer?

Heidi Ledford in Nature:

Of the many young people whom Cathy Eng has treated for cancer, the person who stood out the most was a young woman with a 65-year-old’s disease. The 16-year-old had flown from China to Texas to receive treatment for a gastrointestinal cancer that typically occurs in older adults. Her parents had sold their house to fund her care, but it was already too late. “She had such advanced disease, there was not much that I could do,” says Eng, now an oncologist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, Tennessee. Eng specializes in adult cancers. And although the teenager, who she saw about a decade ago, was Eng’s youngest patient, she was hardly the only one to seem too young and healthy for the kind of cancer that she had.

Thousands of miles away, in Mumbai, India, surgeon George Barreto had been noticing the same thing. The observations quickly became personal, he says. Friends and family members were also developing improbable forms of cancer. “And then I made a mistake people should never do,” says Barreto, now at Flinders University in Adelaide, Australia. “I promised them I would get to the bottom of this.”

More here.

A Memoir Of AIDS, Loss, And Abundance

Kay Gabriel at Bookforum:

MIDWAY THROUGH ABOUT ED, Robert Glück revives a line by Frank O’Hara: “Is the earth as full as life was full, of them?” Referring to three of O’Hara’s recently deceased friends, the line appears in “A Step Away from Them,” where it clangs against the rest of the poem and its meandering attention to noontime activity in midtown Manhattan, 1956. It perplexes Glück, whose About Ed remembers Ed Auerlich-Sugai, a lover and friend who died of AIDS-related complications in 1994. “The misdirection threw me,” Glück writes, “from the earth being full, to life being full, instead of Ed being full of life. Was life still full. . . ? Was it always? Was it ever?”

Glück’s somewhat lyrical question asks after “the fertility of death,” as he calls it elsewhere. That vivid phrase suggests its author’s heterodox approach to a literature of loss, grief, and HIV/AIDS. In his grief, Glück elaborates a particular and surprising structure of feeling: abundance where one might have expected absence.

more here.

Kim Gordon’s Coolest Act Yet

Lindsay Soladz at the NYT:

The day she turned 60, the artist and musician Kim Gordon felt, by her own admission, “shipwrecked.” She had recently gone through a painfully high-profile divorce from her husband of 27 years, Thurston Moore, and in the wake of their split, their band Sonic Youth — the freewheeling and fearlessly experimental group that almost single-handedly defined the sound and ethos of American alternative rock — ended its 30-year-run. Plenty of people she loved attended her 60th birthday bash in New York, but she still felt unmoored.

Gordon’s 70th birthday party last year, though, was another story entirely.

For one thing, it was in Los Angeles, the city she’d grown up in and returned to in 2015. But also, as Gordon explained on a video call from her book-strewn home in late February, it doubled as a celebration of finishing her second solo album, “The Collective.”

more here.