Erica Chenoweth’s data shows how—and when— authoritarians fall

Lydialyle Gibson in Harvard Magazine:

In the weeks and months after Donald Trump’s second inauguration, the number “3.5 percent” kept showing up—like a mantra, or maybe a prayer—in different corners of the internet. It was repeated in social media posts, long Reddit threads, online newsletters, political podcasts, videos, and the websites of activist organizations. “The Hopeful Math for Saving Democracy,” proclaimed a headline in Ms. Magazine. In his newsletter, independent journalist Dan Froomkin asked, “Is there a magic number for the resistance?”—and answered with that familiar figure.

A decade ago, academic research found that authoritarian governments around the world have almost always been forced to yield when mass-resistance campaigns manage to mobilize 3.5 percent of a country’s population during a “peak” event. In the activist community, one organizer told me, it’s become “kind of a golden rule.”

More here.

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The Best and Worst Things to Say to Someone Just Diagnosed With Cancer

Angela Haupt in Time Magazine:

When Katie Thurston was diagnosed with Stage IV metastatic breast cancer earlier this year, at age 34, people kept telling her they knew someone with the same diagnosis. Solidarity, you might think. A helpful way to relate. Not exactly: Their friend or family member had died. This scenario is “pretty recurring,” says Thurston, who starred on season 17 of The Bachelorette, and while people have good intentions—they want you to know they have experience with what you’re going through—the remark doesn’t land well. “We understand that death is a possibility in this diagnosis,” she says. “I don’t need to hear that.”

Thurston has been on the receiving end of a lot of outreach and opinions since she shared her breast cancer diagnosis—from strangers online, as well as people she knows in real life. While death-related stories are particularly painful, there are plenty of other comments that fall short of helpful. Communication slip-ups in this area are common, experts say. When a loved one is diagnosed with cancer, people often struggle to figure out how to express their support, leading them to trip over their words or hold back from saying anything at all.

More here.

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Sunday Poem

Things That Fall

They say 420 drones and 24 missiles.
They say most intercepted.
They say two confirmed dead, but you know how the news lies
not by faking it, but by smoothing it.
They don’t say how long the sirens rang,
or if a dog got left on a balcony, or
if the man who always sells sunflowers at the corner
was standing there this time too.

In Lviv there was a girl who liked to draw planets.
Her teacher posted a video,
one of those voiceover ones
where someone says she had dreams,
and she did,
but she also had scabs on both knees and
once stole a pen from the bank just to see if she could.

I drank too much that night.
Watched the footage on mute.
Sometimes I think watching it with sound
makes it feel more real,
but sometimes the silence is worse
you start filling it in.

I don’t know what God wants.
I don’t know what we want.
Maybe it was always going to come to this,
drones over cities, missiles with names,
people saying “our defense was successful”
while putting plastic tarps over windows
where children used to tape paper snowflakes.

My neighbor left his porch light on all night again.
I knocked once but he didn’t answer.
Maybe he’s dead. Maybe he’s sleeping.
Maybe he’s praying in the way only people
who don’t believe in anything can.

There’s a way a city leans after it’s been hit.
Not physically
I mean it like a person who’s just gotten bad news
but hasn’t sat down yet.

One kindergarten’s roof caved in.
One subway station flooded.
One woman lost her hands.
Try writing a poem with no hands.
Try opening a can of peaches.
Try anything.

I used to think words could stop a war.
I used to think language had a kind of backbone.
But now even metaphors feel embarrassed.
Now even hope has to be rationed.

I would send this poem to her
if I thought it could reach her.
If I knew her name.
If I thought the shape of this sentence
could carry what didn’t burn.
But I don’t.
And it can’t.
And even if it could,
the signal wouldn’t hold.
Not with all that smoke in the sky.

by Sushanta Basumatary
from Rattle Magazine

— “The large-scale Russian aerial assault on Ukraine during the night of July 21st, in which over 420 drones and 24 missiles targeted multiple cities including Kyiv and Lviv. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted most of the projectiles, but civilian casualties and infrastructure damage were reported. This event has been described as one of the most intense attacks of the year and has drawn widespread international condemnation.” Sushanta Basumatary:

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Friday, July 25, 2025

America’s epistemic challenges run deeper than social media

Dan Williams at Asterisk:

Many people sense that the United States is undergoing an epistemic crisis, a breakdown in the country’s collective capacity to agree on basic facts, distinguish truth from falsehood, and adhere to norms of rational debate.

This crisis encompasses many things: rampant political lies; misinformation; and conspiracy theories; widespread beliefs in demonstrable falsehoods (“misperceptions”); intense polarization in preferred information sources; and collapsing trust in institutions meant to uphold basic standards of truth and evidence (such as scienceuniversitiesprofessional journalism, and public health agencies).

According to survey data, over 60% of Republicans believe Joe Biden’s presidency was illegitimate. 20% of Americans think vaccines are more dangerous than the diseases they prevent, and 36% think the specific risks of COVID-19 vaccines outweigh their benefits. Only 31% of Americans have at least a “fair amount” of confidence in mainstream media, while a record-high 36% have no trust at all.

What is driving these problems?

More here.

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Ancient DNA solves mystery of Hungarian, Finnish language family’s origins

Christy DeSmith in the Harvard Gazette:

Where did Europe’s distinct Uralic family of languages — which includes Hungarian, Finnish, and Estonian — come from? New research puts their origins a lot farther east than many thought.

The analysis, led by a pair of recent graduates with oversight from ancient DNA expert David Reich, integrated genetic data on 180 newly sequenced Siberians with more than 1,000 existing samples covering many continents and about 11,000 years of human history. The results, published this month in the journal Nature, identify the prehistoric progenitors of two important language families, including Uralic, spoken today by more than 25 million people.

The study finds the ancestors of present-day Uralic speakers living about 4,500 years ago in northeastern Siberia, within an area now known as Yakutia.

“Geographically, it’s closer to Alaska or Japan than to Finland,” said co-lead author Alexander Mee-Woong Kim ’13, M.A. ’22.

More here.

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Inside the Rise of the Multiracial Right

Daniel Martinez HoSang in the New York Times:

My colleague Joseph Lowndes and I have been studying the movement of nonwhite voters to the right for 15 years. When we began this work, people like Mr. Gibson — who told us they hated the establishment, who felt let down or left behind by the politics of the Democratic Party — were often disdained by liberals as dupes of the right voting against their own interests, votes they would regret once they saw their conservative beliefs in action.

But seven years later, Mr. Gibson seems to be much less of an anomaly. Mr. Trump nearly doubled his support among Black voters from 2020 to 2024, won some 40 percent of the Asian American vote, and took almost half of the Latino vote. Many of those I have spoken with recently — students, lawyers, mechanics, pastors and others — sounded strikingly similar to Mr. Gibson. Angry at a system they contend is indifferent to their lives, they express ideas that were once seen only on the far-right fringe.

The rightward drift of minority voters is not a story of just one election. It is a phenomenon years in the making, one that is reshaping the American political landscape. And to understand this movement, you must understand the transformations in the places they are happening.

More here.

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What Keeps the Lights On

Charles C. Mann at The New Atlantis:

Put a bagel in a toaster oven and push a button. In a few seconds, heating elements inside the oven glow red and heat the bagel. The action seems simple — after all, ten-year-olds routinely toast bagels without adult supervision. Matters look different if you inquire into what must happen to make the oven work. Pushing the button engages the mechanism of an incomprehensibly vast multinational network: the North American electrical grid.

The numbers are dazzling. The United States alone has more than 6 million miles of power lines, enough to stretch to the Moon and back twelve times. An average U.S. single-family home contains almost 200 pounds of copper wire — and there are more than 80 million U.S. single-family homes. The Empire State Building alone has more than 470 miles of electrical wiring. And all these miles upon miles upon miles of wire and cable and circuit are so routinely and reliably coupled that most of us think nothing of the fact that southern California gets power from hydroelectric dams a thousand miles away in northern Washington State. Constructed over more than a century, embodying entire political and economic histories, the North American electrical grid may be the most complex object ever created by our species.

more here.

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Scientists Are Tracking Worrying Declines in Insects—and the Birds That Feast on Them. Here’s What’s Being Done to Save Them Both

Madeline Bodin in Smithsonian:

Less than two hours after sunrise, with the shadows still blue and slanting hard in a dense growth of balsam firs and spruces, the baby bird blundered into a fine black net strung along the ridgeline of Mount Mansfield, at 4,393 feet Vermont’s tallest mountain. Desirée Narango, a conservation scientist with the Vermont Center for Ecostudies, or VCE, retrieved the rescued bird and with practiced fingers spread one of its wings like a fan. From the bird’s mottled and rumpled feathers, Narango could see that this slate-colored bird was a dark-eyed junco, a sparrow species found in various color combinations across North America. The bird was just a few weeks out from leaving its nest. It was too young to tell its sex. But she was less interested in the bird itself than in what it had been eating.

Juncos are known as seed-eating birds. They spend their days rummaging through the undergrowth searching for fallen seeds. At feeders, they prefer smaller grains, like millet. But seeds don’t provide the protein juncos, or any songbirds, need to grow a new set of feathers while they molt. And the protein this baby junco needs to molt its blotchy juvenile feathers and to grow sleek stone-gray feathers on top and white ones below would come only from bugs.

More here.

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How Do Human Egg Cells Stay Healthy for Decades?

Sahana Sitaraman in The Scientist:

A human female is born with all the egg cells she will ever have. The possibility for the development of new oocytes is zero. Given this constraint, it is crucial that these gametes remain healthy and viable for decades until they are needed to form an embryo. Irrespective of the ‘age’ of the fertilized oocyte, the resulting embryo has the characteristics of a freshly born cell, indicating the existence of mechanisms that counteract accrued cellular damage and keep the egg fresh. What are these processes that drive the prolonged life of human egg cells?

Elvan Böke, an oocyte biologist at the Centre for Genomic Regulation, studies exactly that. A healthy cell boasts vigilant scanning for and removal of misfolded, damaged, or unnecessary proteins. A common feature associated with cellular aging is the breakdown of intracellular protein degradation machinery.1 In previous studies done in mouse oocytes, Böke and other researchers found that these cells rely on two key adaptations to keep their cytoplasm free of harmful clutter: They store and degrade of protein aggregates in vesicles and contain oocyte proteins with exceptionally long lives.

More here.

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Friday Poem

Dead Reckoning

There’s a gold weather-vane –
a galleon – catching the sun
on the sea-green copper
spire of Sankt Johannes,
not a cloud in the sky,
the ship as if becalmed.

I try to recall
the currents, compass
errors and storms that took me
off course, asking
whether, and for how long
one’s initial bearing lasts.

But on a windless day like this
the fifteen-metre waves
the broken mast
the ice-jammed pully-block
are long forgotten
and it seems one is

exactly where one planned
to be, having kept
for all these years
with sextant and calipers
dead reckoning,
and come home.

by Michael Jackson
from Dead Reckoning
Auckland University Press, 2006


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The Uncanny Persistence of the Persistence of Vision

Lawrence Weschler at Wondercabinet:

I begin this chapter with three outrageous facts:

(1) You are blind every time you move your eyeballs.
(2) You experience reality approximately 120 milliseconds (three film frames) after it has happened.
(3) You are not aware of either of these facts.

I will use these strange but scientifically well-established phenomena to urge the final abandonment of the so-called retinal persistence of vision, which is often used (still!), two hundred years after it was first proposed, as an explanation for why we see motion when we watch a motion picture – which is, after all, just a series of still images.

Using the attributes of the saccade – the jump of the eyeball from one focal point to another – I hope to provide a satisfying replacement for retinal persistence. Cutting to the chase, it will amount to this:

The neurology of saccades, which evolved over hundreds of millions of years of vertebrate sight to smooth out the shifts of attention that happen during the sudden movement of eyeballs, was hijacked and put to use when motion pictures were invented.

more here.

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Thursday, July 24, 2025

Anti-philosophy philosophy

Matt Lutz at Humean Being:

Here’s an old paradox. The scientist declares that science is the only way to truth and that philosophy is bunk. “Over here in my department,” he proclaims, “we really learn things about reality. We poke and prod the universe and see what happens. We formulate hypotheses, design and conduct experiments to test them, analyze the data, and form justified conclusions about the way the world works on that basis. Over in the philosophy department, they don’t do any of that. They make shit up. What I’m doing is REAL and IMPORTANT and GENERATES KNOWLEDGE. Philosophers do none of those things!” And the philosopher, hearing this rant, has a ready reply: “What experiments did you do to establish the truth of that little speech? None at all! (And if you did run an experiment, I’d love to hear about the setup!) Turns out that you’re endorsing a bunch of philosophical claims. So you yourself have a philosophy all your own! Philosophy is inescapable for both of us. The only difference is that I’m honest about it.”

For those with training in philosophy, this quick back and forth is extremely well-known. (Those without philosophical training often find themselves playing the role of the scientist in that exchange; I see some version of it play out once a month or so on social media.) The lesson that follows is simple and devastatingly compelling: philosophy is not all bullshit.

More here.

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What Keeps the Lights On

Charles C. Mann in The New Atlantis:

Put a bagel in a toaster oven and push a button. In a few seconds, heating elements inside the oven glow red and heat the bagel. The action seems simple — after all, ten-year-olds routinely toast bagels without adult supervision. Matters look different if you inquire into what must happen to make the oven work. Pushing the button engages the mechanism of an incomprehensibly vast multinational network: the North American electrical grid.

The numbers are dazzling. The United States alone has more than 6 million miles of power lines, enough to stretch to the Moon and back twelve times. An average U.S. single-family home contains almost 200 pounds of copper wire — and there are more than 80 million U.S. single-family homes. The Empire State Building alone has more than 470 miles of electrical wiring. And all these miles upon miles upon miles of wire and cable and circuit are so routinely and reliably coupled that most of us think nothing of the fact that southern California gets power from hydroelectric dams a thousand miles away in northern Washington State. Constructed over more than a century, embodying entire political and economic histories, the North American electrical grid may be the most complex object ever created by our species.

More here.

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