Brian Eno’s Theory of Democracy

Henry Farrell over at his substack Programmable Mutter:

The back story to this post doesn’t start with Brian Eno. Back in 1991, the political scientist Adam Przeworski published a book, Democracy and the Market. Most of the book was about the democratic transition in Central and Eastern Europe, and it was very good as best as I can judge these things. But the first chapter was much, much better than very good. It laid out a brief theory of democracy that reshaped the ways in which political scientists think about it.

Przeworski’s theory starts from a simple seeming claim: that “democracy is a system in which parties lose elections.” It then uses a combination of game theory and informal argument to lay out the implications. If we assume (as Przeworski assumes) that parties and political decision makers are self-centered, why would the ruling party ever accept that they had lost and relinquish control of government? Przeworski argues that it must somehow be in their self-interest to so. He argues that they will admit defeat if they see that the alternative is worse, and (this is crucial) because democracy generates sufficient uncertainty about the future that they believe they might win in some future election. They know that they will hurt their interests if they refuse to give in, and they have some (unquantifiable but real) prospect of coming back into power again. Democracy, then, will be stable so long as the expectation of costs and the uncertainty of the future give the losers sufficient incentive to accept that they have lost.

This is a more beautiful idea than I am able to explain in a brief post, and certainly much more beautiful than any argument I will ever come up with myself. It compresses a vast and turbid system of enmeshed ambitions and behaviors into a deceptively simple nine word thesis

More here.

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Sunday Poem

Me he perdido muchas veces por el mar
I I’ve lost myself many times in the sea

Ghazal for Lorca

Had Lorca been in India, he would have been lost in the sea of courtesans
Not the coquetry of Andalusian women, but dusky moaning courtesans

Had Lorca been in Lahore for versos, he would have visited the Lahore Fort,
the duende and Dionysian blood wedding of a yearning courtesan

Had Lorca met me in the surreal setting across the Taj Mahal, we would
have penned Rubaiyat, an assembly of tears, simmering courtesans!

Had Lorca searched for jasmine and vendors around the Royal Mosque
I would have preferred to sleep and supplicate with a courtesan,

Had Lorca instead of Basilica, chosen the shrine of a saint in Lahore,
the Genile, grooved by tobaccos, a puff of love with my courtesan,

Had I been there where Lora was martyred, I would have grieved long
till churches had stopped tolling; better die embracing a courtesan,

Had Lorca and Agha Shahid encountered and roamed for Rekhta in Kashmir,
Rizwan would have breached borders, exporting ghazals with courtesans.

by Prof.Dr. Rizwan Akhtar
Institute of English Studies
Punjab University

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Friday, May 2, 2025

Testing AI’s GeoGuessr Genius

Scott Alexander at Astral Codex Ten:

Last week, Kelsey Piper claimed that o3 – OpenAI’s latest ChatGPT model – could achieve seemingly impossible feats in GeoGuessr. She gave it this picture:

…and with no further questions, it determined the exact location (Marina State Beach, Monterey, CA).

How? She linked a transcript where o3 tried to explain its reasoning, but the explanation isn’t very good. It said things like:

Tan sand, medium surf, sparse foredune, U.S.-style kite motif, frequent overcast in winter … Sand hue and grain size match many California state-park beaches. California’s winter marine layer often produces exactly this thick, even gray sky.

Commenters suggested that it was lying. Maybe there was hidden metadata in the image, or o3 remembered where Kelsey lived from previous conversations, or it traced her IP, or it cheated some other way.

I decided to test the limits of this phenomenon.

More here.

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Ways to Cut Your Risk of Stroke, Dementia and Depression All at Once

Nina Agrawal in the New York Times:

New research has identified 17 overlapping factors that affect your risk of stroke, dementia and late-life depression, suggesting that a number of lifestyle changes could simultaneously lower the risk of all three.

Though they may appear unrelated, people who have dementia or depression or who experience a stroke also often end up having one or both of the other conditions, said Dr. Sanjula Singh, a principal investigator at the Brain Care Labs at Massachusetts General Hospital and the lead author of the study. That’s because they may share underlying damage to small blood vessels in the brain, experts said.

Some of the risk factors common to the three brain diseases, including high blood pressure and diabetes, appear to cause this kind of damage. Research suggests that at least 60 percent of strokes, 40 percent of dementia cases and 35 percent of late-life depression cases could be prevented or slowed by controlling risk factors.

“Those are striking numbers,” said Dr. Stephanie Collier, director of education in the division of geriatric psychiatry at McLean Hospital in Massachusetts. “If you can really optimize the lifestyle pieces or the modifiable pieces, then you’re at such a higher likelihood of living life without disability.”

More here.

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A Modern Counterrevolution

Bernard E. Harcourt in The Ideas Letter:

In a blizzard of executive orders and emergency declarations, President Donald Trump has taken a hatchet to the American government and the global order. He is wrecking the administrative state, shuttering entire agencies and departments, laying off federal workers, firing inspectors general. He is deporting permanent residents for speech protected by the First Amendment, revoking visas from international students, sending immigrants to the military camp at Guantánamo Bay and a mega-prison in El Salvador, and trying to eliminate birthright citizenship. He is defunding research universities and attacking the legal profession. He is threatening draconian tariffs on the country’s closest allies and neighbors, demeaning their leaders, and pulling the United States out of longstanding international commitments. Every day, he launches another unprecedented offensive or changes course; he creates ambiguity and fuels confusion, leaving his critics to second-guess themselves while giving himself cover.

He remains extremely popular with his base, even if his overall ratings have dropped to record lows. His critics, though, attack him six ways from Sunday. They call him a fascist, an authoritarian, a tyrant, the kleptocratic tool of tech billionaires, a profiteer, a reality-TV impostor, the embodiment of toxic masculinity, a bully. Yet none of these labels fully captures the scope or the coherence of what is happening in the U.S. today. These diagnoses focus too much on the individual, and this is an individual who, like a virtuoso illusionist, keeps his audience mesmerized by the spectacle but distracted from what is really going on. The radical developments underway must be placed in deeper perspective.

More here.

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Working at Krispy Kreme

Kate Durbin at The Baffler:

My favorite thing to do at Krispy Kreme to stave off the boredom is stack the donuts on top of each other and then squish them down into a “sandwich.” When they are hot, they flatten in an extreme way. I can get about twelve in the pile before things get messy. Some days, this donut sandwich is all I eat, other than maybe one other thing, a giant slice of pizza from Sbarro or orange chicken from Panda Express in the mall across the vast parking lot, which I pay for with my meager tip money. I also drink excessive amounts of the whole chocolate milk we sell. This anorexic, sugary diet means I weigh just under 110 pounds and am always jittery.

I get home at night bone-exhausted. Peel my shoes from my swollen feet, dirty white Vans I got at Journeys in the mall, skater shoes that reek of sweat but also sweetness. The donut smell baked into the shoe’s material. Years later it will still be there when I finally throw those shoes away.

more here.

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As Neighbors Start Disappearing

Lawrence Weschler at Wondercabinet:

For hard as it still may be to believe, let alone process, in barely one hundred days we have already fallen into a form of governance in which legally resident individuals (currently by and large immigrants of one sort or another—mothers, fathers, students with entirely current green cards or asylum claims—but with every indication that such tactics will presently be getting extended to full-fledged citizens as well) are literally being spirited off the streets by masked men in unmarked cars and, without the slightest due process or the most tenuous access to any sort of recourse, whisked off to prisons, both at home and abroad, seemingly beyond the sanction of any sort of judicial oversight (the rulings of judges flagrantly ignored and the judges themselves now starting to get subjected to arbitrary arrest as well simply for even having expressed them), the legislative branch cowed into impotence by the abject servitude of its barely majority party, the executive branch a whipsaw of whims and tantrums, with no end in sight.

more here.

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Friday Poem

All About the Blues

It’s all about the blues, you remind me,
smiling, nodding in affirmation – dry, chalky blue
of the sky brushing itself one way, then another,
unfathomable cobalt of the great lake churning below,
haint blue of my mother’s Appalachian home,
undiluted sininen of the old country,
midnight rising like a bruise beneath the snow.
How many have come to greet us today,
come to call us back to the pulse and hum of this
indelible world, this never-too-familiar world,
this world of unfolding luxury, fear, and surprise?
You say there is a horizon here some days,
and sometimes we must make our own.
You say the colors we love most are the ones
we can never know by name, would not want to know,
colors that no amount of mixing could create.
Not until later, when you have painted this
landscape and placed it in my hands, its colors
still wet and shimmering – reaching for one another,
as all things will – do they begin to reveal
themselves, becoming at once a place I could
walk into, land or no land, sky or no sky,
a place in which I could easily drown.

by Greg Watson

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Thursday, May 1, 2025

A reviewer hangs with Bono for five hundred pages

Matthew Shipe in The Common Reader:

The lead singer and primary lyricist of the long-running rock band U2, Bono has never exactly been the shy type. Outside of Elvis posing with Nixon, no rock star has seemed so comfortable posing with so many politicians, and Bono has perhaps set the record for the most Rock ’n’ Roll Hall of Fame induction speeches given.3 A preacherly ambition propels Bono’s memoir, Surrender: 40 Songs, One Story, as the book chronicles U2’s forty-odd-year career, and the book’s impact hinges on your openness to Bono’s expansiveness. While no fruit is thrown at rock royalty, Surrender as a whole offers a smart and charmingly self-deprecating portrait of Bono and his three friends from Dublin as they propel themselves from scruffy post-punk band to one of the last of the great rock ’n’ roll acts, one of the few bands from their era that can stand with the Stones and the McCartneys in the cavernous sports arenas around the world. If a talking head is needed to wax poetic on America, rock ’n’ roll, debt relief, religion, sex, life, death—I am sure he has an opinion on cross-stitching—Bono is the person to turn to.

More here.

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A Spring in Every Kitchen

Charles C. Mann in The New Atlantis:

For as long as our species has lived in settled communities, we have struggled to provide ourselves with water. If modern agriculture, the subject of the previous article in this series, is a story of innovation and progress, the water supply has all too often been the opposite: a tale of stagnation and apathy. Even today, about two billion people, most of them in poor, rural areas, do not have a reliable supply of clean water — potable water, in the jargon of water engineers. Bad water leads to the death every year of about a million people. In terms of its immediate impact on human lives, water is the world’s biggest environmental problem and its worst public health problem — as it has been for centuries.

On top of that, fresh water is surprisingly scarce. A globe shows blue water covering our world. But that picture is misleading: 97.5 percent of the Earth’s water is salt water — corrosive, even toxic. The remaining 2.5 percent is fresh, but the great bulk of that is unreachable, either because it is locked into the polar ice caps, or because it is diffused in porous rock deep beneath the surface.

More here.

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War or Peace on the Indus?

John Briscoe at The South Asian Idea:

I have deep affection for the people of both India and Pakistan, and am dismayed by what I see as a looming train wreck on the Indus, with disastrous consequences for both countries. I will outline why there is no objective conflict of interests between the countries over the waters of the Indus Basin, make some observations of the need for a change in public discourse, and suggest how the drivers of the train can put on the brakes before it is too late.

Is there an inherent conflict between India and Pakistan?

The simple answer is no. The Indus Waters Treaty allocates the water of the three western rivers to Pakistan, but allows India to tap the considerable hydropower potential of the Chenab and Jhelum before the rivers enter Pakistan.

The qualification is that this use of hydropower is not to affect either the quantity of water reaching Pakistan or to interfere with the natural timing of those flows. Since hydropower does not consume water, the only issue is timing. And timing is a very big issue, because agriculture in the Pakistani plains depends not only on how much water comes, but that it comes in critical periods during the planting season. The reality is that India could tap virtually all of the available power without negatively affecting the timing of flows to which Pakistan is entitled.

More here.

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Reading During a Genocide

Isabella Hammad in The Yale Review:

A few years ago, I taught the Lebanese American writer and artist Etel Adnan’s short novel, Sitt Marie-Rose (1978), as part of an undergraduate literature class in the Occupied West Bank. Composed in French over a single month (“end to end,” Adnan said) in 1976, Sitt Marie-Rose tells a fictional version of the story of Marie-Rose Boulos, a Syrian Christian woman kidnapped and killed for helping the Palestinians during the first phase of the Lebanese Civil War, which began in 1975. The book was among the class’s favorite texts on the syllabus, and when I asked why they liked it so much, one student raised his hand and replied: “She said what needed to be said.”

Over the course of the past year, my reading habits have narrowed. As Israel’s genocidal war on the Palestinians in Gaza expanded to Lebanon with the complicity and support of many of the world’s great powers, I found myself passing over books that failed to offer me a route into thinking about the great brutality of the period through which we are living.

More here.

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The 100 days that shook U.S. science

Malakoff and Brainard in Science:

It is almost certainly the most consequential 100 days that scientists in the United States have experienced since the end of World War II.

Since taking his oath of office on 20 January, President Donald Trump has unleashed an unprecedented rapid-fire campaign to remake—some would say demolish—vast swaths of the federal government’s scientific and public health infrastructure. His administration has erased entire agencies that fund research; fired or pushed out thousands of federal workers with technical backgrounds; terminated research and training grants and contracts worth billions of dollars; and banned new government funding for activities it finds offensive, from efforts to diversify the scientific workforce to studies of the health needs of LGBTQ people. The frenetic onslaught has touched nearly every field—from archaeology to zoology, from deep-sea research to deep-space science. And it has left researchers from postdocs to lab heads feeling bewildered, worried—and angry. Many fear that in just 14 weeks, Trump has irreversibly damaged a scientific enterprise that took many decades to build, and has long made the U.S. the envy of the world.

More here.

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The Making of the Buru Quartet

Joel Whitney at The Believer:

On October 6, 1973, Pramoedya Ananta Toer was ordered by prison guards to run double-time across Buru Island. The writer had been arrested eight years before, taken into custody in the middle of the night. Detained without charges alongside thousands of other men and women, Toer was sent to Buru—a prison island far east of Java and Bali—and forced to toil under the scorching sun. He was desolate, not only because of the Sisyphean labor he was made to perform, the inability to write, and the gnawing feeling of injustice, but also because he was separated from his family. Before prison, he had been happily married to his beloved Maimoenah, his second wife and mother to five of his children. After several years of seclusion from the outside world, Toer was hopeful that the press junket he was being forced to attend could be an opportunity to petition for the freedoms that had been revoked when he was imprisoned, if not ensure his release. It would be the closest he would get to a trial, during which he could publicly question the validity of his arrest.

more here.

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On Paul Auster’s Translation of Joseph Joubert

Mark LaFlaur at The New Criterion:

Amid the recent tributes to Paul Auster, who died on April 30, 2024, at age seventy-seven, one important work of his that was overlooked was his translation in the early 1980s of The Notebooks of Joseph Joubert. Joubert was a French writer from the late 1700s and early 1800s, a man of both the Enlightenment and the Romantic age. You may not have heard of Joubert before—he never actually published in his lifetime, and he’s not famous for his maxims like Pascal or La Rochefoucauld—though you may have encountered his saying “To teach is to learn twice.” Joseph Joubert is, however, an original thinker, a writer of piercing aphorisms of surprising modernity and warm humanity who is well worth reading and rereading. He was a friend of Diderot and Chateaubriand among others, and he saw both the aristocracy and the common folk up close, before and after the French Revolution.

I happened to be in Paris at the time Auster’s death was announced. In France he is regarded as a rock star, and in the 1990s he was made a chevalier and then an officier of the Ordre des Arts et des Lettres by the French government.

more here.

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Thursday Poem

Part of Eve’s Discussion

It was like the moment when a bird decides not to eat from your hand,
and flies, just before it flies, the moment the rivers seem to still
and stop because a storm is coming, but there is no storm, as when
a hundred starlings lift and bank together before they wheel and drop,
very much like the moment, driving on bad ice, when it occurs to you
your car could spin, just before it slowly begins to spin, like
the moment just before you forgot what it was you were about to say,
it was like that, and after that, it was still like that, only
all the time.

by Marie Howe
from New American Poets
David R. Godine, publisher, 1991

 

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