Nick Whitaker & J. Zachary Mazlish at Works in Progress:

Many entrepreneurs have tried to create prediction markets, contracts that trade on the outcome of future events. Luke Nosek, cofounder of PayPal, once worked on the problem. Sam Bankman-Fried, the jailed founder of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, is supposed to have originally wanted to build a prediction markets platform. A number of venture capital–backed start-ups are currently building prediction markets, including Kalshi, a prediction market regulated by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); Manifold, a play money prediction market; and Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market currently illegal in the US.

Many academics have advocated for the creation of prediction markets. Economics Nobel laureate Kenneth Arrow argued for their deregulation in Science, alongside Cass Sunstein, the most cited legal scholar; Thomas Schelling, one of the foremost game theorists; and Philip Tetlock, who created superforecasting. Economist Bryan Caplan’s Substack is called Bet On It, alluding to the value of wagering on beliefs: bets are costly for people with wrong beliefs and profitable for people with accurate ones. This is the promise of prediction markets: they could use the wisdom of crowds and the price mechanism of markets to land on highly accurate probabilities.

More here.

Enjoying the content on 3QD? Help keep us going by donating now.

M.V. Ramana at Literary Hub:

As someone trained in physics, and as an academic paid to research, I have been drawn to studying one essential contributor to these crises: how energy and electricity are produced, especially those methods proposed to mitigate climate change. Prominent among these proposals is nuclear energy.

Although climate change scares me, I am even more scared of a future with more nuclear plants. Increasing how much energy is produced with nuclear reactors would greatly exacerbate the risk of severe accidents like the one at Chernobyl, expand how much of our environment is contaminated with radioactive wastes that remain hazardous for millennia, and last but not least, make catastrophic nuclear war more likely.

Some might argue that these risks are the price we must pay to counter the threat of climate change. I disagree, but even if one were to adopt this position, my research shows that nuclear energy is just not a feasible solution to climate change.

More here.

Enjoying the content on 3QD? Help keep us going by donating now.

Enjoying the content on 3QD? Help keep us going by donating now.

Rahul Bhatia in The Guardian:

Running a finger over a row of books in a Delhi library one afternoon, I stopped at a title that promised danger. The stacks were abundant in books like RSS Misunderstood and Is RSS the Enemy?, which often turned out to be self-published polemics that were too long, however short they were. This one was different. On its front was the full title, In the Belly of the Beast: The Hindu Supremacist RSS and the BJP of India, An Insider’s View. I read the first page, and then the next, slowly, with rising giddiness. Not long after, I was beside a Sikh gentleman at his photocopying machine. What pages, he asked. Everything, I said.

In the long hour that followed, I wondered if the book’s presence on these shelves was an oversight. This was the closest that any writer had come to describing the organisation from within. That night I swallowed its contents whole, scanned a copy for myself to store in several places for safekeeping, and wrote to its author. We mailed, and then scheduled a video call, and then arranged to meet two months later, when he travelled to India from the US to alert people to the dangers of the RSS before the 2024 elections began.

More here.

Enjoying the content on 3QD? Help keep us going by donating now.

Daniel Pink in The Washington Post:

Enjoying the content on 3QD? Help keep us going by donating now.

Kayla Guo in Undark:

When Texas’ highest criminal court stopped Robert Roberson’s execution in 2016, it agreed with his lawyers that there was enough doubt over the cause of his daughter’s death to warrant a second look. Roberson, who was convicted in 2003 of killing his 2-year-old daughter Nikki, has maintained his innocence during more than 20 years on death row. To Roberson and his lawyers, the decision was exactly what a groundbreaking Texas statute, dubbed the “junk science law,” was meant to do: provide justice when the scientific evidence that led to a conviction has been discredited.

Now with a chance to exonerate Roberson, his lawyers got to work. They compiled a 302-page filing of new evidence that they said invalidated the finding that his daughter died from shaken baby syndrome. The filing summarized medical articles on how the consensus around shaken baby diagnoses had cracked, medical records that illustrated Nikki’s illness and medications in the days leading up to her death, and long-lost CAT scans that they said proved she did not die from being violently shaken. The state, meanwhile, submitted a 17-page filing that argued that the science around shaken baby diagnoses had not changed that much, and that the evidence that pointed to Roberson as his daughter’s killer remained “clear and convincing.”

More here.

Enjoying the content on 3QD? Help keep us going by donating now.

On the Subway for the First Time

Janique Vigier at Bookforum:

OPEN ANY BOOK BY CAROLINE BLACKWOOD and you will encounter the same woman. Articulate, adrift, callous, cosmically self-absorbed. She’s in the middle of her life, a retired actress or model, once striking and sought-after. Her misery has a predatory quality. Decisions made idly and capriciously she now clings to as essential facets of her “character.” She rebels continually against the restraints and privations she inflicts upon herself. She behaves as though she were onstage, thundering dramatic monologues of deceit and self-justification. What’s clearest is her anger: pure, whole, just beneath the surface, like a calcium deposit under the skin.

Blackwood’s women are loaded with rage. And why not? Their marriages are loveless, their husbands shirks, their children ingrates, their mothers domineering, their friends useless, their careers faded. But her anger transcends circumstance; it is existential, the kind breakdown can’t allay and catharsis can’t purge.

more here.

Enjoying the content on 3QD? Help keep us going by donating now.

Nick Ripatrazone at Literary Hub:

At the 1912 Olympic Games in Stockholm, Sweden, Jim Thorpe easily won the decathlon in the first modern version of the event. The grueling, ten-part feat was not the only addition to the burgeoning modern games. Other events that debuted at the 1912 Olympics included architecture, sculpture, painting, music… and literature.

Although often separated, athletes and artists are both performers; they create, and perhaps crave, spectacle. The ancient union between sport and the arts appealed to Baron Pierre de Coubertin, the creator of the modern Olympics. In his official report on the 1896 games in Athens, de Coubertin parried away critics with a confident, and true, pronouncement: “I hereby assert once more my claims for being sole author of the whole project.”

His vision for the modern games was quite literary; in fact, de Coubertin created a monthly journal, La Revue Athlétique, “hoping to raise the interests in manly sports in France.”

More here.

Enjoying the content on 3QD? Help keep us going by donating now.

Matthew Sparkes in New Scientist:

Drivers on a busy US freeway have been controlled by an AI since March, as part of a study that has put a machine-learning system in charge of setting variable speed limits on the road. The impact on efficiency and driver safety is unclear, as researchers are still analysing the results.

Roads with variable speed limits, also known as smart motorways, are common in countries including the US, UK and Germany. Normally, rule-based systems monitor the number of vehicles on one of these roads and adjust speeds accordingly. One such road is a 27-kilometre section of the I-24 freeway near Nashville, Tennessee, which was experiencing a problem that besets many busy roads: when there are too many vehicles, phantom traffic jams appear when drivers brake, slowing vehicles to a crawl and risking crashes as fast-moving vehicles come up behind.

To address this, Daniel Work at Vanderbilt University in Nashville and his colleagues trained an AI on historical traffic data to monitor cameras and make decisions on speed limits, deploying it in the I-24 control room in February.

More here.

Enjoying the content on 3QD? Help keep us going by donating now.

Enjoying the content on 3QD? Help keep us going by donating now.

Robert Muggah at Project Syndicate:

Transnational organized crime is a paradox: ubiquitous yet invisible. While criminal tactics evolve rapidly, government-led responses are often static. When criminal networks are squeezed in one jurisdiction, they rapidly balloon in another. Although the problem concerns everyone, it is often considered too sensitive to discuss at the national, much less the global, level. As a result, the international community – including the United Nations and its member states – lacks a coherent and coordinated strategy to address it.

That needs to change. Cross-border organized crime constitutes a major threat to peace, security, human rights, governance, the environment, and sustainable development. According to the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, over 80% of the world’s population resides in countries with dangerously high levels of criminality. But, while there appears to be growing awareness of the problem, responses are still reactive, fragmented, and under-funded.

Transnational organized crime – from drug trafficking and people smuggling to the sale of counterfeit goods and cybercrime – reaches into most cities, neighborhoods, and homes. In the United States, over 90% of the $1 banknotes in circulation are tainted by residual traces of cocaine and other drugs.

More here.

Enjoying the content on 3QD? Help keep us going by donating now.

Mikkael Sekeres in The Washington Post:

Enjoying the content on 3QD? Help keep us going by donating now.

Shelly Fan in Singularity Hub:

The brain is like a medieval castle perched on a cliff, protected on all sides by high walls, making it nearly impenetrable. Its shield is the blood-brain barrier, a layer of tightly connected cells that only allows an extremely selective group of molecules to pass. The barrier keeps delicate brain cells safely away from harmful substances, but it also blocks therapeutic proteins—like, for example, those that grab onto and neutralize toxic clumps in Alzheimer’s disease. One way to smuggle proteins across? A cat parasite. A new study in Nature Microbiology tapped into the strange world of mind-bending parasites, specifically, Toxoplasma gondii. Perhaps best known for its ability to rid infected mice of their fear of cats, the parasite naturally travels from the gut to the brain—including ours—and releases proteins that tweak behavior.

The international team hijacked T. gondii’s natural, brain-targeting impulses to engineer two delivery systems, one for a single-shot therapeutic boost and another that lasts longer.

More here.

Enjoying the content on 3QD? Help keep us going by donating now.

Chase Padusniak at Commonweal:

Freud’s influence waned during the 1980s and 1990s, in part because of the so-called “Freud Wars,” during which critics like Frederick Crews took psychoanalysis to task for a lack of scientific support or clinical success. Crews tried to put a final nail in the coffin in 2017’s Freud: The Making of an Illusion. But, despite the criticism and the precipitous decline in Freudian analysts, Freud’s ideas never quite went away. In a review of Crews’s mammoth biography, George Prochnik offered an explanation. Ideas like repression, hidden parts of the self, and the half-scrutable language of dreams “in the forms they circulate among us, are indebted to Freud’s writings.” The name Freud might have become mud for a time, but his thought seems to keep speaking to us from below the surface, almost as if from our unconscious.

Is he poised to break through again? Some detect a “Freud resurgence” underway. Hannah Zeavin, founding editor of Parapraxis, a magazine devoted to psychoanalytic thought, remarks in the Chronicle of Higher Education that the old man’s back again, perhaps because of all the psychosocial trauma of recent years.

more here.

Enjoying the content on 3QD? Help keep us going by donating now.

Erik Gleibermann in LA Review of Books:

HUMAN BEINGS ARE autobiographers by nature. Whether or not we ultimately write down any words, we can’t help mentally composing narratives out of our emotionally messy lives, attempting to seam coherence from chaos. Yet just as they provide a mode of self-discovery, so too can these autobiographical impulses cross over into self-deception—and the line between the two can be thin.

Dinaw Mengestu’s stunning new novel Someone Like Us follows an Ethiopian American man and his immigrant fatherlike figure, both of whom stumble along these kinds of shaky, self-constructed borders. The man—our narrator Mamush—is a lapsed journalist flying to Washington, DC, from Paris, where he lives with his wife, Hannah, and their toddler son. He’s en route to visit his mother and her lifelong friend Samuel, an overworked cabbie who has played an erratic avuncular role since Mamush was six years old and living with his mother in Chicago.

The novel builds around this two-day trip, including Mamush’s impulsive detour from Paris to Chicago and his subsequent arrival in DC, where he learns that Samuel has taken his own life. On the same day he receives this devastating news, Mamush opens the glove box of a taxi Samuel has recently driven to find a familiar US road atlas—one Mamush enjoyed studying as a child. Now, he’s too cynical to hope the worn booklet marked by Samuel’s initials might steer him to answers, “as if this were the kind of story where even minor objects were the source of great mystery and intrigue.”

More here.

Enjoying the content on 3QD? Help keep us going by donating now.

Corey Robin in The New Yorker:

My first and only experience of antisemitism in America came wrapped in a bow of care and concern. In 1993, I spent the summer in Tennessee with my girlfriend. At a barbecue, we were peppered with questions. What brought us south? How were we getting on? Where did we go to church? We explained that we didn’t go to church because we were Jewish. “That’s O.K.,” a woman reassured us. Having never thought that it wasn’t, I flashed a puzzled smile and recalled an observation of the German writer Ludwig Börne: “Some reproach me with being a Jew, others pardon me, still others praise me for it. But all are thinking about it.”

Thirty-one years later, everyone’s thinking about the Jews. Poll after poll asks them if they feel safe. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris lob insults about who’s the greater antisemite. Congressional Republicans, who have all of two Jews in their caucus, deliver lectures on Jewish history to university leaders. “I want you to kneel down and touch the stone which paved the grounds of Auschwitz,” the Oregon Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer declared at a hearing in May, urging a visit to D.C.’s Holocaust museum. “I want you to peer over the countless shoes of murdered Jews.” She gave no indication of knowing that one of the leaders she was addressing had been a victim of antisemitism or that another was the descendant of Holocaust survivors.

It’s no accident that non-Jews talk about Jews as if we aren’t there. According to the historian David Nirenberg, talking about the Jews—not actual Jews but Jews in the abstract—is how Gentiles make sense of their world, from the largest questions of existence to the smallest questions of economics.

More here,

Enjoying the content on 3QD? Help keep us going by donating now.

Nelson Lichtenstein in Dissent:

After visiting the United Auto Workers convention in Atlantic City in 1947, C. Wright Mills wrote that the most impressive thing about the union was “the spectacle it affords of ideas in live contact with power.” While he considered union president Walter Reuther a dynamic leader, Mills was more impressed with the team of young men around him, the labor intellectuals who translated the radicalism and democratic enthusiasms of a boisterous rank and file into a set of concrete programs.

“One of the major clues to the politically disappointing history of American unions,” Mills wrote, “has been the absence of union-made intellectuals: men who combine solid trade union experience . . . with the self-awareness and wider consciousness that are the qualities of the intellectual. The key fact about the UAW is that there is a group of such men.”

Comparing them to the New York intellectuals—here he was undoubtedly thinking of Dwight Macdonald and writers for his magazine, politics—Mills called these UAW partisans “intellectuals without fakery and without neuroticism.” They were not academic strivers or little magazine impresarios. “The gap between ideas and action is not so wide as to frustrate and turn them inward; their ideas are acted out.” Unlike so many other intellectuals, wrote Mills, “they are not just waiting and talking their lives through.”

More here.

Enjoying the content on 3QD? Help keep us going by donating now.

David J Linden in Aeon:

Growing up in Los Angeles in the 1970s, I gradually came to realise that my father was not the stereotypical psychoanalyst. Yes, he had an office with enigmatic modern art on the walls, copies of The New Yorker in the waiting room and the requisite analytical couch. It’s true that said couch had a wedge-shaped pillow designed for the client to assume the supine posture so frequently portrayed in the cartoons from those same issues of The New Yorker. And, during psychoanalytic sessions, my father did indeed perch in a black leather Eames chair, notebook in hand. But beyond those trappings, he had the sceptical and logical mind of a physician (in those days, nearly all psychoanalysts were, like my father, MDs).

Starting when I was a small child and continuing until I left for university, my father and I would eat dinner together at one of several local restaurants every Wednesday night. Over matzoh ball soup at Zucky’s Delicatessen, we’d discuss anything and everything, including the progress of his psychoanalytic clients (with names and identifying details omitted of course). It was an odd way to grow up and I loved it. In our Wednesday night case studies, there would be the expected psychodynamic talk of dream interpretation and early childhood experiences, but it was all tempered by what would come to be known as neuroscience. He would say that, when the talking cure worked (as it did for most of his clients), it did so not in the nebulous realm of id, ego and superego, but rather by changing the cellular and molecular structure of the brain.

More here.

Enjoying the content on 3QD? Help keep us going by donating now.

More here.

Enjoying the content on 3QD? Help keep us going by donating now.