by Jonathan Halvorson
There has been a minor resurgence of interest in whether the social sciences live up to their billing as sciences. Economics in particular is going through well-deserved scrutiny from its ongoing failures of prediction and its inability to build consensus.
Is this just the classic scientific process of new theories replacing old, or does science itself have a credibility problem? There has always been one sort of scientific credibility problem, but it was easy to write off intellectually, if not politically: ideologues and fanatics threatened by the results of science become motivated deniers of the theories that threaten their Weltanschauungen. Today, that means mostly evolution, Big Bang cosmology, and global warming. But this new credibility problem, should we choose to accept it, undermines any discipline in which the truth is slippery and seems to change. Whether it’s because the underlying ground shifts beneath our feet, or because we cannot get a reliable footing on even stable ground, the value of the scientific process and its results is diminished. Put simply: you can’t trust what the researchers say, or even the consensus of the scientific community.
I confess that, for me, many sciences have had a credibility problem for a long time. I can’t read about the latest breakthrough result in the field of anthopology, medicine, nutrition or educational theory without thinking: how long before this, too, is contradicted by new research and turned into yesterday’s fad? How long before the expensive new pharmaceutical is shown to have been no better than aspirin, or a sugar pill? How long before the newly heralded educational technique racks up a string of failures and is written off as just another modest tool in the toolbox, or thrown out entirely?
