How The ‘AI Job Shock’ Will Differ From The ‘China Trade Shock’

Nathan Gardels at Noema:

Among the job doomsayers of the AI revolution, David Autor is a bit of an outlier. As the MIT economist has written in Noema, the capacity of mid-level professions such as nursing, design or production management to access greater expertise and knowledge once available only to doctors or specialists will boost the “applicable” value of their labor, and thus the wages and salaries that can sustain a middle class.

Unlike rote, low-level clerical work, cognitive labor of this sort is more likely to be augmented by decision-support information afforded by AI than displaced by intelligent machines.

By contrast, “inexpert” tasks, such as those performed by retirement home orderlies, child-care providers, security guards, janitors or food service workers, will be poorly remunerated even as they remain socially valuable. Since these jobs cannot be automated or enhanced by further knowledge, those who labor in them are a “bottleneck” to improved productivity that would lead to higher wages. Since there will be a vast pool of people without skills who can take those jobs, the value of their labor will be driven down even further.

This is problematic from the perspective of economic disparity because four out of every five jobs created in the U.S. are in this service sector.

More here.

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The real da Vinci code

From Science:

In April 2024, microbial geneticist Norberto Gonzalez-Juarbe stood over an enigmatic drawing in a private New York City collection. Gently, he rubbed its centuries-old surface, front and back, with a swab like those used in COVID-19 testing. “It’s not every day,” Gonzalez-Juarbe recalls with a laugh, “that one gets to touch a Leonardo.” Rendered in red chalk on paper, Holy Child shows a young boy’s head inclined slightly to the side, his features sketched with feathery strokes. Light pools softly around his cheeks and brow, dissolving the edges of his pensive face in a haze of sfumato. The late art dealer Fred Kline, who acquired the drawing in the early 2000s, had claimed stylistic features such as left-handed hatching, a trademark of Leonardo da Vinci’s, link Holy Child to the Renaissance master. But its authorship remains in dispute; experts say one of his students could have produced it.

Gonzalez-Juarbe’s swabs may have captured a biological clue. In a remarkable milestone in a decadelong odyssey, he and other members of the Leonardo da Vinci DNA Project (LDVP), a global scientific collective, report in a paper posted today on bioRxiv that they have recovered DNA from Holy Child and other objects—and some may be from Leonardo himself.

More here.

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Thursday Poem

How to Teach a Child to Pray

Humiliate her at every checkpoint. Replace
the Second Surah with air raids and shelling.

Reduce everything she knows to rubble.
Bury her younger brother under his school.

Laugh when she raises her hands in front of her face
and asks your God for peace.

Surveil her dreams of clean water and fresh bread.
Reduce everything she knows to rubble, again.

Direct her to ignore the smell of decaying bodies
when bowing down to perform Ruku.

Strip search her grandparents in the street
let her hold their shame.

Expect her gratitude for being able to count
on one hand cousins who have one hand.

Teach her to dread shelters and refugee camps
instead of periods.

Assume her capacity to forgive will be longer
than her memory.

Dare her to stand up and repeat
“God is Good!.”

by Frank X Walker
from Kinfolk.
Poetry Magazine January/February 2026 issue of Poetry.

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Wednesday, January 21, 2026

Could This Portrait of an Elderly Man With a Young Woman’s Face Hidden in His Beard Be a Long-Lost Study by Peter Paul Rubens?

Sonja Anderson at Smithsonian Magazine:

Three years ago, Belgian art dealer Klaas Muller paid about $115,000 for an undated, unsigned painting of an elderly man. Offered online by a “lesser-known auction house in northern Europe,” the piece was billed as a study by an unknown master of the “Flemish school,” Muller tells the Guardian’s Philip Oltermann.

However, the oil-on-paper piece may be the work of Peter Paul Rubens, the renowned Flemish painter of the 17th century. When Muller first glimpsed the warm-toned painting—depicting a man gazing downward past his long, wavy beard—he recognized something in it.

“I wasn’t sure it was a Rubens. I just knew it was very Rubens-esque, so it was still a gamble,” Muller tells the Guardian. “I have a library of books about [Rubens] at home and look at them most evenings. … It’s a bit of an addiction.”

Muller also thought the man in the painting looked familiar. He guessed it was St. Peter the Apostle or the Roman god Neptune, he tells the Belgian newspaper De Standaard’s Geert Sels. Muller began combing his reference books.

More here.

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World is entering an era of ‘water bankruptcy’

Alec Luhn in New Scientist:

Earth has entered an “era of water bankruptcy” due to over-consumption and global warming, with 3 in 4 people living in countries that face water shortages, water contamination or drought.

That’s the conclusion of a United Nations report that has found most regions are overdrawing their annual income of rainwater and snowmelt and dipping into their savings of groundwater, which can take thousands of years to replenish. Seventy per cent of major aquifers are declining. Many of these changes are irreversible.

Two key drivers are agriculture and cities expanding into arid areas, which are getting even drier due to climate change. Almost 700 sinkholes have appeared in Turkey due to groundwater pumping, while dust storms from desertification have killed hundreds in Beijing.

More here.

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On Editing and Not Editing

Brian Patrick Eha at The Hedgehog Review:

Joan Didion could hardly stand It. More than once, It made Robert Caro wrathful, yelling down the telephone line: because periods had been softened into semicolons, semicolons diminished into commas. Gay Talese, when he was a New York Times reporter, if he thought himself ill-used by It, would call the copy desk and demand that his byline be struck from the offending piece before it could run in the paper’s afternoon edition. John McPhee, dealing with a philistine who dared apply a Procrustean rule to the juicy forty-thousand-word piece on oranges he had blithely filed as his third-ever contribution to The New Yorker, sectioning off 85 percent of the story, fought for five days running to restore as much as possible of his manuscript—enough, in the end, to make a serial feature published in two sequential issues.1 A bane of the top talents and best minds, shortening by God knows how many lost hours their productive working lives—this is what It is and does.

By now, you have surely guessed what It is. I refer of course to editing.

more here.

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Scientists in Dreamland

Alice Vernon at The American Scholar:

In 1897, Russian physician and scientist Marie de Manacéïne made a startling but necessary observation: “If we pay no attention to sleep, we thereby admit that a third part of our lives is unworthy of investigation.” The quality and content of our dreams and our sleep, she believed, could reveal an immense amount of information about our worries, our memories, the things we learn, and the condition of our bodies. Dreams should never be washed away with the morning splash of water to the face.

More than 100 years after de Manacéïne, sleep scientist Michelle Carr, based at the University of Montreal, is shining a light on our sleeping minds. Her new book, Nightmare Obscura, is a thorough and engaging tour through the science and philosophy of our dreaming lives. Needless to say, there is still much work to be done in transferring the discoveries of sleep scientists to general clinical practice. Take nightmares, for example. “A nightmare is a real experience,” Carr writes, and indeed, multiple large-population studies have shown that up to 40 percent of adults experience a nightmare every month.

more here.

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Landholder vs stockholder: The origin of our political divisions

Catherine Nichols at Aeon:

The terms ‘left’ and ‘right’ come from the seating arrangements in the National Assembly during the French Revolution, where the combatants used the medieval estate groupings to define their battle lines. According to their writings, land-owning aristocrats (the Second Estate) were the party of the Right, while the interests of nearly everyone else (the Third Estate) belonged to the Left. This Third Estate included peasants working for the landowners but also every other kind of business owner and worker. Decades later, Karl Marx offered a different analysis of capitalism: he put owners of both land and businesses together on one side (the bourgeoisie), while grouping workers from fields and factories on the other side (the proletariat) in a single, world-wide class struggle. The trouble with both these ways of parsing Left and Right is that voting patterns never seem to line up with class. Both historic analyses leave us with questions about the contemporary world – and not just the paradox of why so many Left-leaning places are so rich. Why, for example, do working-class conservatives appear to vote against their material interests, year in and year out, across generations?

More here.

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Girls are starting puberty younger — why, and what are the risks?

Cassandra Willyard in Nature:

When Lola was eight years old, she went through a massive growth spurt and started developing acne. Her mother, Elise, thought Lola was just growing fast because of genes inherited from her father. But when she noticed that Lola had grown pubic hair too, she was floored. A visit to an endocrinologist in 2023 confirmed that Lola’s brain was already producing hormones that had kick-started puberty. Lola had also been struggling emotionally. “She would have panic attacks every day at school,” says Elise, who lives in Minneapolis, Minnesota, and asked that her surname and Lola’s real name be omitted.

Although eight might seem young to start puberty, it’s not as rare as it once was. Data show that girls around the world are entering puberty younger than before. In the 1840s, the average age of first menstruation, or menarche, was about 16 or 17; today, it’s around 12. The average age for onset of breast development fell from 11 years in the 1960s to around 9 or 10 years in the United States by the 1990s. Some research hints that the trend mysteriously accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic. (Although some data suggest that puberty is happening earlier for boys too, the shift seems to be less pronounced.)

More here.

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Wednesday Poem

Written for the inauguration of Zohran Mamdani, Jan 1, 2026, NYC.

Proof

You have to imagine it:
Who said you were too dark/too
Large? Too queer/too loud?
Who said you were too poor/

Too strange? Too fat?

You have to imagine it:
Who said you must keep quiet?
Who heard your story, then
Rolled their eyes?
Who tried to change your name

To invisible?

You’ve got to imagine:
Who heard your name
And refused to pronounce it?
Who checked their watch

And said “not now”?

James Baldwin wrote:
“The place in which I’ll fit
Will not exist

Until I make it.”

New York, city of invention,
Roiling town, refresher

And re-newer,

New York, city of the real,
Where the canyons
Whisper in a hundred

Tongues,

New York,
Where your lucky self
Waits for your
Arrival,
Where there is always soil
For your root.

This is our time.

The taste of us/the spice of us
The hollers and the rhythms and

The beats of us.

In the echo of our
Ancestors,
Who made certain we know

Who we are.

City of Insistence,

City of Resistance,

You have to imagine:
An Army that wins without
Firing a bullet,
A joy that wears down

The rock of no.

Up from insults,
Up from blocked doors,
Up from trick bags,
Up from fear/up from shame,
Up from the way it was done before.

You have to imagine:

That space they said wasn’t yours.
That time they said you’d never own.
The invisible city lit, on its way.
This moment is our proof.
.

By Cornelius Eady

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Tuesday, January 20, 2026

The ‘mutant’ humans immune to every known virus

Ian Taylor at BBC Science Focus:

Imagine coasting through flu season with barely a sniffle. Or brushing off COVID, no matter how many times it mutated.

Imagine, in fact, that no virus can harm you, from chickenpox to Dengue to HIV. Even the deadliest viruses we know of, like rabies or Ebola, don’t cause you serious problems.

For a handful of people, this seems to be the case. Anyone with a specific and rare genetic mutation benefits from a superpowered side-effect: they fight off viruses with ease, to the extent that most of the time, they don’t even know they’ve been infected.

The mutation in question causes a deficiency in a key immune system protein called ISG15. In turn, this leads to a mildly elevated systemic inflammation in their bodies – it’s this inflammation that seems to subdue any virus that tries to get past.

When Dusan Bogunovic, professor of immunogenetics at Columbia University in New York, first discovered the mutation 15 years ago, he didn’t realise what was in front of him.

More here.

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The crisis whisperer: how Adam Tooze makes sense of our bewildering age

Robert P Baird at The Guardian:

Though he still teaches history, Tooze is also widely acknowledged as an expert on the infrastructure of global finance and the economics of the green-energy transition. He is the rare commentator who can speak credibly about the political economy of Europe, the US and China, and he has been an outspoken advocate on issues ranging from central-bank reform to Palestinian rights. In addition to being the author of five books, he writes regular columns and essays for outlets like the Financial Times and the London Review of Books, hosts podcasts in English and German, and publishes a wildly popular and influential Substack newsletter called Chartbook, which he sends out daily in English to more than 160,000 subscribers, including Paul Krugman, the Nobel prize-winning economist, and Larry Summers, the former US treasury secretary. Chartbook also goes out in a Chinese-language version that, Tooze estimates, received 30m total impressions last year.

More here.

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Economics explains why nonviolent resistance is an effective strategy and today’s immigration demonstrations are failing

Roland Fryer at the Wall Street Journal:

This also explains [Martin Luther] King’s fierce opposition to riots, even when he understood the rage behind them. “A riot is the language of the unheard,” he said in 1967. But he immediately added that riots were “socially destructive and self-defeating.” As historian David Garrow documents, King believed that violence collapsed the moral clarity the [civil rights] movement depended on, allowing repression to masquerade as order. Riots were strategic failures. They destroyed the information the movement was trying to convey and pushed society back toward the bad equilibrium.

This isn’t just historical rationalization; the same logic applies to today’s immigration protests. If the protests were disciplined and nonviolent, they could do what King’s strategy was designed to do: separate types, force belief-updating among moderates, and make repression politically costly. Instead they quickly turned visibly violent—objects thrown, clashes with officers—and federal officials predictably framed the unrest as a public-order problem, even raising the possibility of invoking the Insurrection Act.

More here.

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The Poems of Seamus Heaney

David Schurman Wallace at Poetry Magazine:

The collected poems displays the evolution of Heaney’s poetic impulses. The apprentice work from the 1960s is already accomplished, if less clarified in its thought and more given over to the tug of spontaneous music. Influences are, inevitably, worn on the sleeve, as in the Hopkins-derived “October Thought,” which bursts into chiming assonance and alliteration: “Starling thatch watches, and sudden swallow / Straight shoots to its mud-nest, home-rest rafter, / Up through dry, dust-drunk cobwebs, like laughter”—a clue to the origin of the compound nouns that are constant in his work. Commentators note the Dylan Thomas influence in “Song of My Man-Alive” (“it was all tune-tumbling / Hill-happy and wine-wonderful”). Heaney was hyper-aware of his influences, even as he refined his relationship to them. Helen Vendler thinks of him as a poet of “second thoughts,” testing the same material again and again. In an essay about Thomas collected in The Redress of Poetry (1995), Heaney turns his eye to the fate of that’s poet reputation: “I want to ask which parts of his Collected Poems retain their force almost 40 years after his death. In the present climate of taste, his rhetorical surge and mythopoetic posture are unfashionable . . . which only makes it all the more urgent to ask if there is not still something we can isolate and celebrate in Dylan the Durable.”

more here.

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