Malcolm Murray is an AI risk management expert, a Superforecaster, a philomath, and a Buddhist meditator. He has spent two decades advising corporate executives and government ministers on risk and strategy. He holds an MBA from INSEAD and two master’s in business from Stockholm and Paris. Growing up in Sweden, he has lived across Asia, Europe, the US and the Middle East, and speaks Swedish and English fluently, French and German proficiently as well as basic Spanish, Arabic, Malaysian and Russian. He blogs at minimizinguncertainty.com. Email: malcmur [at] minuncert.com
by Malcolm Murray By 2030, we will have countries of geniuses in data centers, but we won’t know what to do with them. In my 10+ years as a Superforecaster, I have picked up many techniques and lessons regarding forecasting. Given the fractured state of the debate on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and AI progress,…
by Malcolm Murray The Paris AI Summit the other week might have been the end of a 10-year run for AI safety as Azeem Azhar, the creator of Exponential View, put it. The concept of AI safety, which can be said to have started in earnest with Nick Bostrom’s 2014 book Superintelligence, had a 10-year…
by Malcolm Murray As someone who thinks about AI day-in and day-out, it is always fascinating to see which events in the AI space break out of the AI bubble and into the attention of the wider public. ChatGPT in November 2022 was of course one. The podcast-creating ability of Google’s NotebookLM almost got there,…
by Malcolm Murray Oops. During most of 2024, all the talk was of deep learning hitting a wall. There were secret rumors coming out of OpenAI and Anthropic that their latest training runs were disappointing. People were confidently stating that AI progress had now hit a plateau. Importantly, this was not just a few pundits…
by Malcolm Murray The world does not lend itself well to steady states. Rather, there is always a constant balancing act between opposing forces. We see this now play out forcefully in AI. To take a step back, the balancing act is present whether we look at the micro or the macro level. On the…
by Malcolm Murray What does the election of Trump mean for risks to society from advanced AI? Given the wide spectrum of risks from advanced AI, the answer will depend very much on which AI risks one is most concerned about. The AI risk spectrum can be drawn from the near-term, high-certainty risks such as…
by Malcolm Murray There is a strawman factory smack in the middle of the AI risk debate. Given the complexity of AI risk, we are seeing a lot of weak arguments, focusing only on one aspect of AI risk or AI risk management. In fact, AI risk has become a bit of a “strawman factory”,…
by Malcolm Murray In the 21st century, only two risks matter – climate change and advanced AI. It is easy to lose sight of the bigger picture and get lost in the maelstrom of “news” hitting our screens. There is a plethora of low-level events constantly vying for our attention. As a risk consultant and…
by Malcolm Murray The battle lines are drawn. AI safety is fighting a battle on three fronts. The figure shows how the AI safety viewpoint is opposed to three others, on two dimensions. First, let’s define the axes. The debate over advanced AI and its risks and benefits has many dimensions, but here we focus…
by Malcolm Murray As AI evolves, so do the risks it poses on society. The risks of AI today are already unrecognizable from those of a few years ago. As a dual-use technology, similar to nuclear power, the capabilities of AI bring great benefits as well as great risks. As opposed to nuclear power, however,…