Arang Keshavarzian at Equator:
The comparison with 1979 is lazy because it assumes that history is a model that repeats itself in exactly the same way. So when the bazaaris protested and closed their shops in late December, many “Iran-watchers” perked up, suggesting that this moment would result in an overthrow of the state. In fact, whenever there’s turmoil in Iran people reach for the 1979 analogy, a move that narrows our political imagination and stunts our analytical capacities.
1979 can offer some rough general threads to look for. We can ask: Are there cross-class coalitions being forged? Do these coalitions weaken the ability of the state to function? For instance, in 1978, labor strikes in the oil fields and in bureaucracies not only mobilized people, but also reduced the capacity of the monarchy to rely on a functioning state. This hasn’t happened today. The state is still intact. We‘re far from a revolutionary situation.
There are other differences between then and now.
More here.
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