Erica Chenoweth’s data shows how—and when— authoritarians fall

Lydialyle Gibson in Harvard Magazine:

In the weeks and months after Donald Trump’s second inauguration, the number “3.5 percent” kept showing up—like a mantra, or maybe a prayer—in different corners of the internet. It was repeated in social media posts, long Reddit threads, online newsletters, political podcasts, videos, and the websites of activist organizations. “The Hopeful Math for Saving Democracy,” proclaimed a headline in Ms. Magazine. In his newsletter, independent journalist Dan Froomkin asked, “Is there a magic number for the resistance?”—and answered with that familiar figure.

A decade ago, academic research found that authoritarian governments around the world have almost always been forced to yield when mass-resistance campaigns manage to mobilize 3.5 percent of a country’s population during a “peak” event. In the activist community, one organizer told me, it’s become “kind of a golden rule.”

More here.

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