David Moscrop at The Walrus:
Carney’s win, and it is his win, began long before the writs were issued. In January, the Liberal Party, under Justin Trudeau, was thoroughly cooked and was well on its way to defeat for months. A movement to oust Trudeau had begun earlier, but it wasn’t until Chrystia Freeland, former finance minister and deputy prime minister who was about to be shuffled out of her coveted job, quit the cabinet altogether in mid-December that Trudeau’s fate was sealed. To some Liberal members of Parliament and the public, Freeland’s departure read as another Trudeau shortcoming, revealing an incapacity to manage a key relationship and meet the moment. Thus, history was remade—and in short order.
The day before Trudeau announced his intention to resign, on January 5, the Liberal party was polling at an aggregate 20 percent, a full twenty-five points behind the Conservatives and just one point ahead of the NDP. Immediately after Trudeau’s departure date was set, the Conservatives began to free fall in the polls, while the Liberals rebounded. By the time Carney was chosen as leader on March 9, the race had tightened, with the Liberals closing the gap to six points.
more here.
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