Dan Gardner at PastPresentFuture:
Good news for Joe Biden this week. Job gains beat forecasts and the phrase “surprisingly strong economy” once again appeared in headlines. Voters mostly refused to acknowledge the good news through 2023 but the latest consumer sentiment surveys suggest the sunshine is finally penetrating the gloom. Optimism is rising. If the economy maintains course through 2024, Biden, for all his faults and weaknesses, will be the heavy favourite for re-election.
That’s the standard sort of analysis political pundits churn out. It’s true, as far as it goes. But let’s push it a little further so we can make plain something that is seldom explicitly discussed — although it is far more important than what pundits usually yammer on about.
Why does a strong economy favour an incumbent president? Because voters generally credit the president for economy. This is so common, so baked into our thinking, that we seldom ask if it makes any sense.
Which is a shame because it mostly doesn’t.
More here.