Scott Alexander in Astral Codex Ten:
The average online debate about AI pits someone who thinks the risk is zero, versus someone who thinks it’s any other number. I agree these are the most important debates to have for now.
But within the community of concerned people, numbers vary all over the place:
- Scott Aaronson says says 2%
- Will MacAskill says 3%
- The median machine learning researcher on Katja Grace’s survey says 5 – 10%
- Paul Christiano says 10 – 20%
- The average person working in AI alignment thinks about 30%
- Top competitive forecaster Eli Lifland says 35%
- Holden Karnofsky, on a somewhat related question, gives 50%
- Eliezer Yudkowsky seems to think >90%
- As written this makes it look like everyone except Eliezer is <=50%, which isn’t true; I’m just having trouble thinking of other doomers who are both famous enough that you would have heard of them, and have publicly given a specific number.
I go back and forth more than I can really justify, but if you force me to give an estimate it’s probably around 33%; I think it’s very plausible that we die, but more likely that we survive (at least for a little while). Here’s my argument, and some reasons other people are more pessimistic.