Covid-19 and a Data Detective Story

Nilotpal Chakravarti at his own Medium page:

The population density of Africa is low overall, with its population being about the same as that of India, while its area is ten times larger. But Nigeria’s population density is fairly high, in fact higher than that of Italy. And its largest city, Lagos, a dense megalopolis of 20 million people living cheek by jowl, is just the kind of city where Covid-19 may be expected to spread fast.

All in all, Nigeria seems to have the makings of a Covid-19 disaster.

Yet data suggests that it is anything but. New Zealand and South Korea are generally both counted among the countries which have mounted the most successful Coronavirus responses. The Covid-19 death rate in Nigeria is about 6 per million, just above that of New Zealand and less than South Korea’s.

What explains Nigeria’s success? Is the Nigerian story too good to be true?

More here.