James L. Gibson and Joseph L. Sutherland at SSRN:
Over the course of the period from the heyday of McCarthyism to the present, the percentage of the American people not feeling free to express their views has tripled. In 2019, fully four in ten Americans engaged in self-censorship. Our analyses of both over-time and cross-sectional variability provide several insights into why people keep their mouths shut. We find that:
(1) Levels of self-censorship are related to affective polarization among the mass public, but not via an “echo chamber” effect because greater polarization is associated with more self-censorship.
(2) Levels of mass political intolerance bear no relationship to self-censorship, either at the macro- or micro-levels.
(3) Those who perceive a more repressive government are only slightly more likely to engage in self-censorship. And
(4) those possessing more resources (e.g., higher levels of education) report engaging in more self-censorship.
Together, these findings suggest the conclusion that one’s larger macro-environment has little to do with self-censorship. Instead, micro-environment sentiments — such as worrying that expressing unpopular views will isolate and alienate people from their friends, family, and neighbors — seem to drive self-censorship. We conclude with a brief discussion of the significance of our findings for larger democracy theory and practice.
More here.