Gilberto García-Vazquez in Phenomenal World:
In a dramatic shift in US trade policy, the Trump administration has imposed and continues to threaten new rounds of tariffs against Mexico, sounding alarm bells across the Mexican manufacturing industry. If fully implemented, these measures could cause immediate disruption in key industrial zones, place hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk, and halt strategic investments.
Whatever Trump’s motivations around migration, security, or a new model of trade integration, the threat reveals a deeper structural vulnerability in Mexico’s economy: an excessive dependence on a single trading partner, one which is now willing to use tariffs as a political tool. This instrumental use of economic power has direct consequences for the stability of the Mexican economy and the functioning of highly integrated value chains between the two countries.
A clear example of this politicization of trade is the recent dispute over the 1944 Water Treaty. On April 10, less than a week after new tariffs announced during so-called “Liberation Day” came into effect, President Trump accused Mexico of “stealing water from Texas farmers” and threatened to immediately impose an additional 10 percent tariff on all Mexican imports, along with targeted economic sanctions. This episode illustrated how the arbitrary and political use of tariffs can generate profound uncertainty around bilateral trade secured by agreements signed decades ago.
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