Kate Mackenzie and Lara Merling in The Polycrisis:
The reelection of Donald Trump to the presidency has sent shockwaves around the world. And just hours after results came in, the ruling three-party German coalition government, which had been teetering for months, collapsed. The survival of dominant political coalitions in other G7 countries—including in France, Japan, and Canada—is now more uncertain than ever.
Amid speculation about how the second Trump term will play out, the question of trade measures is occupying headlines. It is expected that the quantum of tariffs will certainly increase under the incoming administration, and that they will be more assertively weaponized. The extent to which they will represent a break with the Biden era, however, is less clear.
Biden in 2021: “Every single thing, from the deck of an aircraft carrier to the railing of a new building, is going to be built by an American company, American workers, American supply chain, so that we invest American tax dollars in American workers.” (Source: White House)
It’s well known that the Biden administration left the majority of Trump’s trade-war tariffs intact. In fact, revenue collected from tariffs grew under Biden’s watch—particularly on Chinese goods[…]
It is hard to predict how Trump will move ahead with his proposals, which include 60 percent tariffs on Chinese imports and 25 percent tariffs on goods from Canadian and Mexican imports. Appointments of people like Scott Bessent do suggest some strategic crafting of new and increased tariffs, but what will be their effects be, and how will they be managed?
More here.
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