From the Institute For Progress:
In July 2026, over 1,300 employees of frontier AI companies called for the US government to build the capacity to “pace” automated AI R&D via international coordination.1 The letter entails three specific claims:
- Frontier AI companies are close to fully automating AI R&D.
- Automating AI research would pose serious risks.
- Building the option to “pace” is a good way to address those risks.
In this report, we assess the validity of this argument and its implications for US policymakers. Our findings are as follows:
- Rapid progress towards fully automated AI R&D has empirical support, but how much AI capability acceleration this will cause and the risks it might pose are less understood.
- Despite substantial uncertainty, we believe some preparatory policy action is warranted. This follows both from the seriousness of the possible direct risks and from the risk of political backlash to AI-driven disruptions resulting in poorly-reasoned policy measures, such as broad bans on new data centers.
- The term “pacing” is vague and could encompass many possible policy measures. Any decision to slow down AI progress should not be taken lightly. The benefits of more advanced AI could include accelerated economic growth, new technologies, and scientific breakthroughs such as novel cures for diseases.
- Yet, if AI companies succeed in substantially or fully automating AI R&D, and that automation introduces serious risks, the policy tradeoffs would look very different.
More here.
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