Samanth Subramanian interviews Neelanjan Sircar in Equator:
Let’s start with the big result: West Bengal, where the BJP won 206 out of 294 assembly seats. How significant is that margin?
By vote share, we’re picking up a 5% difference between the two parties – which is not small, but it’s not massive either. The mandate in terms of seats is massive, however. And the reason is that the BJP did well, consistently, even if a constituency had a moderate percentage of Muslims.
Which was unexpected. How did that happen?
The BJP has been the major opposition party in West Bengal since 2019, but it has never had a large operation in the state: no cadre of organised, Bengali-speaking party workers on the ground. In the cities, social media and other factors somewhat made up for that lack. But if you travelled to rural areas, the BJP’s presence would disappear. And they had another challenge: how to swing the electoral arithmetic in their favour in a state that is 27% Muslim. So for these reasons, for several months heading into the election, the TMC looked to be a little bit ahead, despite a wave of anti-incumbency.
Around the country, though, and particularly in West Bengal, the BJP has used the Modi government’s machinery – investigative agencies, the paramilitary, the Election Commission – to show its presence, to demonstrate power. Even in Assam, for instance, the Election Commission may well have gerrymandered in favour of the BJP on a scale that we’ve never seen in India.
More here.
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