Steve Newman at Second Thoughts:
Do you feel like you’re able to keep up with developments in AI? I don’t. The impossibility is a running joke among insiders.
If you’re following events, you’ll have seen the launch of AI 2027, a detailed scenario of how AI may unfold. As you might guess from the title, the analysis projects the arrival of ASI – artificial superintelligence – in as little as three years. The highly qualified authors include Daniel Kokotajlo, an ex-OpenAI employee who wrote a prescient forecast of AI progress in 2021, and superforecaster Eli Lifland.
Meanwhile, Dwarkesh Patel’s always-excellent podcast just dropped an interview with two equally qualified researchers from Epoch AI, titled “AGI is Still 30 Years Away”.
These are two of the best sources of information available regarding AI timelines, and they’re starkly contradictory. Is transformative AI 3 years away, or 30? We’re left to our own devices to decide what to believe.
More here.
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