Alexander Etkind in The Ideas Letter:
In September 2024, Saudi Arabia withdrew from its policy of stabilizing oil prices at the symbolic level of $100 per barrel. Having stopped price-gouging, the Saudis intended to displace Russia and Iran, two belligerent petrostates, from the oil market. The same month that saw two major wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, also saw Storm Boris in Central Europe and Hurricane Helene in North America. Terrible news about extreme weather events was competing for attention with horrible news about extreme political events. With more than one hundred nations having elections in 2024, including an unpredictable vote in the US, war and climate have come to the fore of global politics. But of course, all these issues have nothing to do with each other.
Nothing but oil.
It was 1973, and Joe Biden had just become the junior senator from Delaware. Having failed in a war with Israel, several Arab countries imposed an oil embargo. They nationalized oil that had been traded by transnational corporations. Negotiating behind closed doors, governmental officials increased the oil price threefold. Decolonization turned global oil, a private business with gigantic profits and risks, into a network of state properties and sovereign funds. In the meantime, American drivers spent days in the lines at gas stations. Coincidentally or not, both the President and Vice President of the USA resigned shortly. The American politicians realized that their fate depended on oil prices.
Time passed and oil flew. It was 1991, and Vladimir Putin had just become a junior official in St. Petersburg. The price of oil was approaching its lowest point ever – the Soviets and the Saudis were at odds over the war in Afghanistan. Moscow stopped paying salaries, and the impoverished drivers could not buy petrol. Coincidentally or not, the Soviet president resigned, and his country collapsed. Fifteen new independent states, including Russia and Ukraine, emerged from the dust. The Russian politicians realized that their fate depended on oil prices.
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