Steve Newman at Am I Stronger Yet?:
No one seems to know whether world-bending AGI is just three years away. Or rather, everyone seems to know, but they all have conflicting opinions. How can there be such profound uncertainty on such a short time horizon?
Or so I thought to myself, last month, while organizing my thoughts for a post about AI timelines. The ensuing month has brought a flood of new information, and some people now appear to believe that transformational AGI is just two years away. With additional data, the range of expectations is actually diverging.
Here’s my attempt to shed some light.
Have we entered into what will in hindsight be not even the early stages, but actually the middle stage, of the mad tumbling rush into singularity? Or are we just witnessing the exciting early period of a new technology, full of discovery and opportunity, akin to the boom years of the personal computer and the web?
There was already a vibe that things were starting to speed up (after what some viewed as a slow period between GPT-4 and o1), and then OpenAI’s recent announcement of their “o3” model blew the doors off everyone’s expectations.
More here. And see also this article called “The Important Thing About AGI is the Impact, Not the Name“.
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