Quico Toro at Persuasion:
Are hurricanes getting more intense due to climate change? This is one of those questions that seems straightforward—almost banal—but gets weirder the closer you look into it. The discussion atmospheric scientists are having about the drivers of the trend towards stronger hurricanes has shockingly little in common with the simplified story you get in the press.
The standard media narrative begins by comparing hurricane trends so far this century with the three preceding decades. They stress that sea surface temperatures have risen substantially since the late 20th century, and warm oceans are hurricane fuel: the hotter the ocean, the stronger the storm.
“Warm Air and Warm Oceans Power Storms Like Debby,” ran a New York Times headline this summer. Last week, Axios reported that “Due to warming ocean waters and air temperatures from human emissions of greenhouse gasses, tropical storms and hurricanes are now delivering heavier precipitation than just a few decades ago.”
The message is that there’s a nice, neat, clean relationship: more greenhouse gas emissions means a hotter planet, which means warmer oceans, which means stronger hurricanes.
The end.
But this story isn’t quite right.
More here.
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