Stephen Walt: Is the United States in Decline?

Stephen M. Walt in The Ideas Letter:

This introductory essay advances two main claims. First, I argue that although America’s relative power has declined from its post-Cold War peak, this trend is not as profound as pessimists maintain. The United States still retains enormous advantages relative to all other powers; barring a prolonged series of self-inflicted wounds, it will be the most powerful state in the world for many years to come. Unfortunately, the possibility of decline hastened by misguided policy decisions cannot be ruled out.

Second, I suggest that there is little to fear if America’s relative power declines somewhat, provided US leaders accept this development and adjust their policies accordingly. On the contrary, a more even distribution of power might be beneficial for the United States and for many others around the world. The United States does not need a position of unchallenged primacy to be secure or prosperous, and a somewhat more even distribution of power would force Washington to eschew the dangerous combination of counterproductive unilateralism and liberal hubris that has roiled world politics in recent decades. Although a few states may be alarmed if they can no longer count on unconditional US protection, on balance a modest decline in America’s power position might be a good thing.

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