The Art of Prediction and the Arc of the Moral Universe

Eric B. Schnurer in The Hedgehog Review:

Starting during Barack Obama’s first run for president, I began making a number of predictions that struck most people as outlandish at the time. First was the prediction, based in part on Obama’s rise, that politics would realign around a socially liberal economic elite and socially conservative working class, with political parties in the United States switching places as the perceived voice of the elite and working class, respectively. As Obama’s hope-filled tenure drew to a close, I grew concerned that an unprincipled, narcissistic, and buffoonish character such as Donald Trump could channel the hopes and anxieties of tens of millions of Americans into a successful White House run. And as that unfolded, I became convinced that when or if Trump eventually lost power, tens of thousands of armed Americans would rally in an attempt to keep him there. Despite the fact that all this has happened, many, if not most, Americans cling to the belief that this turbulent interval in US history was an aberration that has passed and that all of what I just described is behind us.

I beg to differ.

More here.