Yascha Mounk in Persuasion:
Right now, it feels as though American politics is like a simple puzzle consisting of five pieces. While each piece of the puzzle has been widely discussed, it is easy to miss how they all fit together. But once you put the pieces together, the picture that emerges is very bleak.
The first piece of the puzzle: The words and the actions of Donald Trump demonstrate that he is a serious danger to democracy. The second: If Trump wins another term, he is likely to do a lot more damage than he did in the first. The third: Unless Democrats win a resounding victory in 2024, the country will likely find itself in a deep constitutional crisis. The fourth: Joe Biden, the incumbent president, is old, weak, and deeply unpopular. And the fifth: Kamala Harris, who is very likely to become the Democratic nominee if her boss does not seek reelection, is even less likely to beat Trump.
It is too early for firm predictions. But right now, the single most likely scenario would see an emboldened Trump, or one of his close allies, return to the White House. Unless America changes course, it is headed for disaster.