Saima May Sidik in Nature:
The past two years have been particularly challenging for the world’s poorest people, and this is just the beginning. By the end of this year, at least 75 million more people will have been pushed into poverty (living on less than US$1.90 a day) than was expected before the pandemic. The war in Ukraine and rising inflation have exacerbated the effects of the pandemic, as prices for food, fuel and nearly everything else have skyrocketed.
Researchers at the World Bank have estimated how the number of people in poverty has changed over the past few years, assuming that everyone’s income rose and fell in proportion with the variation in income of an average person in their country. ‘Baseline’ estimates assume that inflation affects all demographics equally, whereas the pessimistic projections reflect the expectation that inflation will affect the lowest earners most.