Lindsay Beyerstein at Majikthise:
The Israeli invasion is creating a huge anti-Israeli backlash and a surge in popular support for Hezbollah. Iran certainly has no incentive to curb its support for Hezbollah under these circumstances. On the contrary, Hezbollah wants to make Lebanon an Islamic state on the model of Iran. Hezbollah is the most powerful military force in Lebanon right now. So, if the Lebanese government falls, as many fear it will, Hezbollah is likely to come out on top.
As I’ve argued before, offline and in comments: Hezbollah is using Israel to create an Islamic Lebanon.