Well, a number of models by Americanists (people who study the United States) suggests that Bush will win the November presidential election.
Predictions in Short:
Alfred Cuzán and Charles Bundrick predict that George Bush will win with 52% of the vote.
Ray Fair predicts that George Bush will win with 60% of the vote.
Allan Lichtman predicts that George Bush will win but gives no forecast of the share of thevote that he’ll receive.
Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien believe that the election is too close to call.
Brad Lockerbie predicts that George Bush will win with 57.6% of the vote.
Helmut Norpoth forecasts that George Bush will win with 54.7% of the vote.
Wlezien and Erikson predict that Bush will get 52.5% of the vote.
I guess we’ll see in November whether any of this is worthwhile.