Yascha Mounk at his own Substack:
Donald Trump now looks as though he might finally be loosening his grip over America. He is less popular than at any point over the last decade. He is likely to experience a severe shellacking at the upcoming midterms. Soon, attention will turn to the 2028 presidential primaries.
But our collective failure to anticipate Trump’s rise has recently been on my mind in a perhaps unexpected context: As social scientists grapple with the ways in which artificial intelligence will transform our economy and our democracy, they are falling back into some of the same errors that led them to miss the imminent rise of populism: At a moment of disjunctive change, they are uncritically looking at recent data to predict what might happen in the future.
More here.
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