Paper by Matthew Tokson at SSRN:
Technological history is often invoked as a reason for optimism about the future of artificial intelligence. People were afraid of the industrial revolution and the printing press, and those turned out to be remarkably beneficial to human civilization. AI optimists infer from this history that we should not worry so much about AI’s effects and that everything is likely to work out as it often has before.
Technological history is also invoked by those who think that AI is unlikely to transform society much at all. History is replete with hype cycles surrounding exciting new technologies that turned out to have only minor impacts on the world. Indeed, relatively few promising early-stage technologies end up becoming useful, let alone transformative. AI might be just another technology that turned out to be less significant, less capable, and accordingly less dangerous, than initially believed.
Yet the lessons of technological history are not always so comforting. There are many examples of decisionmakers being wrong about new technologies and potential threats, sometimes due to excessive skepticism and sometimes excessive optimism.
More here.
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