Wolfgang Streeck in Sidecar:
The Israeli-American war against Iran has thrown financial markets into turmoil and there is growing concern across national economies. Does this remind you of the oil price shock of the 1970s?
Not very much. Back then, it was all still relatively manageable: not much more than a producers’ cartel in the Middle East. Today, thanks to fracking the United States is energy self-sufficient and can afford any kind of madness, including the systematic destruction of energy infrastructure not only in Iran but across the Gulf states – and, as a bonus, the destruction of Iranian society. By contrast, in the 1970s Nixon and Kissinger were preparing for rapprochement with China, while in Germany the Brandt government was turning to a policy of détente, which contributed to the dissolution of the Eastern Bloc two decades later.
Could the war against Iran turn out to be the biggest mistake of Trump’s presidency? He evidently underestimated the potential for escalation.
The Americans always do – they don’t need Trump for that. Look at Biden in Ukraine, and in his wake the Europeans who allowed themselves to be convinced that the war would be over in a few months (the Russians, incidentally, believed something similar). The EU has now taken over the Ukraine war and insists that it must continue, even though the Americans have lost interest and the Russians have, by and large, already won. Why? Presumably because they do not want to admit that they ‘underestimated the potential for escalation’ as you put it. But it could also be that they anticipate technological and economic benefits, as well as greater internal cohesion, from a war others are fighting for them.
More here.
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