Eric Drexler at AI Prospects: Toward Global Goal Alignment:
Advanced AI will transform possibilities, and our future will depend on which become real. Deep uncertainties make an AI arms race risky for all sides, yet AI also creates opportunities for unprecedented security. The key challenge isn’t technical feasibility — advanced AI can do that heavy lifting — but navigating from competition to cooperation against the friction of reality: institutional inertia, expectations rooted in thousands of years of state conflict, and sheer failure to recognize unprecedented options.
Consider the fundamental strategic choices facing great powers in an AI-enabled world. Each side can pursue either cooperation (seeking defensive stability) or domination (seeking offensive superiority). In a world of profound AI-driven uncertainty strategic calculations cannot be carefully weighed, hence the pursuit of deterrence — peace through strength — in practice becomes indistinguishable from pursuit of offensive superiority. This suggests four possible scenarios, which we can represent as a stylized payoff matrix incorporating uncertainty.
More here.
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