Dan Hendrycks and Eric Schmidt in Time:
In the nuclear age that followed Oppenheimer’s creation of the atomic bomb, America’s technological monopoly lasted roughly four years before Soviet scientists achieved parity. This balance of terror, combined with the unprecedented destructive potential of these new weapons, gave rise to mutual assured destruction (MAD)—a deterrence framework that, despite its flaws, prevented catastrophic conflict for decades. The stakes of nuclear retaliation discourage each side from striking first, ultimately allowing for a tense but stable standoff.
Today’s AI competition has the potential to be even more complex than the nuclear era that preceded it, in part because AI is a broadly applicable technology that touches nearly every domain, from medicine to finance to defense. Powerful AI may even automate AI research itself, giving the first nation to possess it an expanding lead in both defensive and offensive power. A nation on the cusp of wielding superintelligent AI, an AI vastly smarter than humans in virtually every domain, would amount to a national security emergency for its rivals, who might turn to threatening sabotage rather than cede power. If we are heading towards a world with superintelligence, we must be clear-eyed about the potential for geopolitical instability.
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