Kate Mackenzie and Tim Sahay in Polycrisis:
This month, Trump entered into formal talks with Russia—without Kyiv’s consent—to settle the war in Ukraine, largely on Putin’s terms. And on Friday, speaking with Zelensky in the Oval Office, he and his Vice President JD Vance performed as imperial overlords dressing down their upstart vassal. For Europeans, the once unthinkable prospect of an American departure from Europe has become a palpable possibility. The question on their minds: Can the European Union survive without the transatlantic military alliance that was famously created seventy-five years ago to, in the words of its founding Secretary General, “keep the Germans down, the Russians out, and the Americans in”?
The apparent collapse of Atlanticism as the ruling ideology of European elites has been swift. Germany’s Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz, a committed Atlanticist—coming from stints at Blackrock and corporate law firms to promote the EU-US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership—was initially willing to appease the US after Trump’s win in November (offering to buy more American LNG and weapons). But JD Vance’s speech in Munich this month marked a turning point, with Merz denouncing it as an act of electoral interference that was “no less drastic, dramatic, and ultimately no less brazen, than the intervention that we have seen from Moscow.” Following the CDU’s persuasive win at the polls on Monday, Merz cast the US as an enemy of the European project. He urged the Union to build up its own defence capabilities, warning that it was now “five minutes to midnight for Europe.”
Europe is now fully and self-consciously security-constrained. This reality collides with two other foundational constraints. Europe’s self-imposed fiscal limits are infamous (we have argued they leave the continent poorer, weaker, and less green); and its energy constraints exploded into view following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as gas prices soared and spread throughout the economy.
More here.
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