Minouche Shafik at Project Syndicate:
It is a multipolar world, with China, Russia, India, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa, and the Gulf states challenging the old order, alongside other emerging powers demanding a greater voice in shaping the rules of the international system. Meanwhile, belief in “universal values” and the idea of an “international community” has waned, as many point to the hypocrisy of rich countries hoarding vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic and the response to the Ukraine war compared to the failures to act in response to humanitarian crises in Gaza, Sudan, and many other places.
Adding to these pressures, US President Donald Trump has threatened to withdraw the security guarantees that have been crucial for Europe and Japan, quit many international organizations, and impose trade tariffs on friends and foes alike. When the guarantor of the system walks away from it, what comes next?
We may be heading to a zero-order world in which rules are replaced by power – a very difficult environment for smaller countries. Or it may be a world of large regional blocs, with the United States dominating its hemisphere, China prevailing over East Asia, and Russia reasserting control over the countries of the former Soviet Union. Ideally, we can find our way to a new rules-based order that more accurately reflects our multipolar world.
To get there, we need to better understand why the old order failed.
More here.
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