Crude Solutions: James Surowiecki on America’s oil refineries

From The New Yorker:

At first glance, there’s nothing unusual about the refinery that Marathon Oil owns in Garyville, Louisiana. Like most refineries, it is in a small town near a port. It can refine two hundred and forty-five thousand barrels of oil a day, which is around the industry median. And the people who live near it have got used to the smell of sulfur dioxide. Indeed, the only thing that’s special about the Garyville facility is that it was opened in 1976. That makes it the last refinery ever built in the United States…

…high gas prices usually provoke one of two explanations: either they’re evidence of a conspiracy or they’re just the result of the free market at work. The good news is that there’s no conspiracy. The bad news is that there’s also no free market.

More here.

Computer ‘Beings’ Evolve as Society

Tracy Staedter in Discovery News:

Computerculture_zoomMillions of computer-generated entities that live and die by natural selection could reveal how our own culture and language evolve.

The software agents are part of a project called NEW TIES (New and Emergent World Models Through Individual, Evolutionary, and Social Learning), which draws on the expertise of five European research institutions to push computer simulation of artificial worlds further than ever before.

The joint computer project not only reproduces individual and evolutionary learning, but also social learning.

“Social learning is these guys telling each other what they learn on their own. One is learning about hot and cold and another is learning about soft and hard.”

“They exchange knowledge and save effort,” explained project coordinator Gusz Eiben, a professor of artificial intelligence at the Vrije University, Amsterdam.

Understanding gleaned from such a project could advance machine learning for a range of applications.

More here.

A Chilling Portrait, Unsuitably Framed

Philip Kennicott in the Washington Post:

Ph2006060801897The frame surrounding an image of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s head, revealed to the world as proof the terrorist is dead, is bizarre. When the picture was displayed at a U.S. military news briefing, Zarqawi’s face was seen inside what appeared to be a professional photographic mat job, with a large frame, as if it were something one might preserve and hang on the wall next to other family portraits. One function of frames is to bound an image, and close down its open edges; frames delimit, both physically and by extension, metaphorically. But that was the last thing this frame was doing…

…so will this image, given a strange dignity by its prominent frame, be a defining image of the war? Not likely. Its primary function is forensic. It proves, in an age of skepticism (heightened by a three-year history of official claims about the war turning out to be false), that Zarqawi is indeed dead. But beyond that, the image has little power. Indeed, as with so many images in this war, it is loaded with the potential to backfire.

More here.

How Accurate Are Your Pet Pundits?

Philip E. Tetlock in Project Syndicate:

Every day, experts bombard us with their views on topics as varied as Iraqi insurgents, Bolivian coca growers, European central bankers, and North Korea’s Politburo. But how much credibility should we attach to the opinions of experts?

The sanguine view is that as long as those selling expertise compete vigorously for the attention of discriminating buyers (the mass media), market mechanisms will assure quality control. Pundits who make it into newspaper opinion pages or onto television and radio must have good track records; otherwise, they would have been weeded out.

Skeptics, however, warn that the mass media dictate the voices we hear and are less interested in reasoned debate than in catering to popular prejudices. As a result, fame could be negatively, not positively, correlated with long-run accuracy.

Until recently, no one knew who is right, because no one was keeping score. But the results of a 20-year research project now suggest that the skeptics are closer to the truth.

More here.

Aula 2006 ─ Movement: Martin Varsavsky

NOTE: All posts at 3QD related to the Aula 2006 ─ Movement event, including this one, will be collected on this page. Bookmark it to stay on top of the Aula meeting at all times for the next week.

The third keynote speech at the Aula 2006 ─ Movement public event will be given by Martin Varsavsky, a well-known Argentine/Spanish entrepeneur. Martin has a BA degree from NYU and an MA in Business Administration from Columbia University (I think that sort of education makes you at least an honorary New Yorker-for-life, Martin!). While still an undergraduate at NYU, Martin started his first business, a real estate development company based in NY. Two years later he founded a biotechnology company named Medicorp Services, which became a pioneer in AIDS testing.

Joimarkomartin

[Photo from David S. Isenberg’s blog shows, from left: Joichi Ito, Aula co-founder Marko Ahtisaari, and Martin Varsavsky.]

More recently, one of Martin’s ventures (Ya.com, launched in 1999) has become Spain’s second largest Internet content company. But Martin has done a lot more than just start companies. As his bio on his website explains:

Martin Varsavsky is also President and founder of the Varsavsky Foundation, a private, independent grant-making organization dedicated to broadening access to, and improving the quality of education world-wide. It has donated funds primarily to Educ.ar (Argentina) and EducarChile (Chile) , two education portals that aim to democratize and modernize the educational systems in their respective countries. Because of his outstanding contributions to his country of origin, Varsavsky was awarded the title of Ambassador-at-Large of Argentina in 2001 up to 2005.

He is also on the Board of Trustees of the William Jefferson Clinton Foundation, and is board member of the Instituto de Empresa and the Peaceworks OneVoice Foundation.

Passionate about current affairs and global issues, Martin Varsavsky has written numerous articles on business and international relations that have been published in several international publications including El Pais and Newsweek. He is also a frequent speaker at conferences around the world, such as the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos…

…he is the recipient of various honors and rewards, among them European Telecommunications Entrepreneur of the Year in 1998, ECTA´s European Entrepreneur of the Year in 1999, Global Leader for Tomorrow by the World Economic Forum in Davos, 2000, and Spanish Entrepreneur of the Year by iBest in 2000.

In his spare time, Martin enjoys cycling, piloting, cooking asados and sailing.

Julie Jette of the Harvard Business School had this to say about Martin’s early confidence in a 2001 profile:

It was the roaring 1980s, and Martin Varsavsky was about to receive his MBA from Columbia University—and he still couldn’t get a job. His fruitless job search was probably the best thing that ever happened to him.

Varsavsky, the irreverent closing speaker at the “Growth Opportunities in Latin America” conference, has started six successful companies in fifteen years. Entrepreneurship is in his blood, and it became obvious during that job search.

Varsavsky said he would go to interviews only to be tripped up by the “Where do you see yourself in five years?” question. “I would say, ‘Well, as your boss.'”

Among other things, Martin currently runs FON, a company which is a provider of wireless broadband access to the internet. Ethan Zuckerman describes the enterprise on his blog thus:

My friend Martin Varsavsky, an absurdly successful serial entrepreneur, has started a new venture – FON. FON is an international company based on the idea of sharing broadband connections through wireless routers. The basic theory – if you’re willing to share your own bandwidth, you can become part of a global network of people also willing to share their connections.

You can choose to share either as “Linus” or a “Bill”. As Linus, you’re agreeing to make your bandwith available to anyone. As a Bill, you’re selling bandwidth for 5 euros for 24 hours, and you split the proceeds with FON, allowing you to become a small-scale wireless entrepeneur. If you’re part of the FON network, you get access to a “Bill” access point for free – it’s only “Aliens” – non-foneros – who pay.

The idea is that you become a fonero by sharing your bandwith at home (with FON’s paying customers) and in exchange, you get free access to wifi wherever you go. In other words, the profit comes from the users of FON who are not also donors.

There is an article in Forbes entitled “Young, Rich & Restless” about Martin which you can see here. Another “fonero” and advisor to FON is Joichi Ito, the last keynote speaker at the Aula meeting, whom I will be profiling tomorrow. Check it out then.

The Computational Universe

Jürgen Schmidhuber reviews Programming the Universe: A Quantum Computer Scientist Takes on the Cosmos by Seth Lloyd, in American Scientist:

Fullimage_20065982619_306In the 1940s, computer pioneer Konrad Zuse began to speculate that the universe might be nothing but a giant computer continually executing formal rules to compute its own evolution. He published the first paper on this radical idea in 1967, and since then it has provoked an ever-increasing response from popular culture (the film The Matrix, for example, owes a great deal to Zuse’s theories) and hard science alike.

Given this backdrop, Seth Lloyd appears to be exaggerating when he claims in his informative and entertaining new book that he “advocates a new paradigm” by postulating the universe to be a machine that processes information. However, in the book, which is titled Programming the Universe, Lloyd does somewhat distinguish himself from his predecessors by focusing on the weird world of quantum computation. He lucidly explains what quantum computation is all about, how the process of quantum entanglement seems to involve an instantaneous exchange of information between locations that can be light-years apart, and why this phenomenon unfortunately cannot be exploited to transmit information faster than light. He also describes how quantum computers would be able to solve certain problems much faster than their traditional counterparts.

More here.  And there is an interesting interview with Seth Lloyd here.

Federer and Nadal in French final

Story_2As Asad Raza anticpated in his brilliant analysis of the French Open, Federer faces Nadal in the final. This is from CNN:

Roger Federer reached the French Open for the first time when his opponent David Nalbandian of Argentina retired in Friday’s semifinal while trailing 3-6 6-4 5-2.

He will play arch rival Rafael Nadal in what could be one of the best French finals of all time.

More here.

Are gyms, not mosques, the main breeding ground for Islamic terrorists?

Brendan O’Neill in Slate:

060602_hw_terroristgymtnThere have been three major terror attacks in the West over the past five years—9/11, the 2004 train bombings in Madrid, and the 7/7 suicide attacks on the London Underground. For all the talk of a radical Islamist conspiracy to topple Western civilization, there are many differences between the men who executed these attacks. The ringleaders of 9/11 were middle-class students; the organizers of the Madrid bombings were mainly immigrants from North Africa; the 7/7 bombers were British citizens, well-liked and respected in their local communities. And interpretations of Islam also varied wildly from one terror cell to another. Mohamed Atta embraced a mystical (and pretty much made-up) version of Islam. For the Madrid attackers, Islam was a kind of comfort blanket. The men behind 7/7 were into community-based Islam, which emphasized being good and resisting a life of decadence.

The three cells appear to have had at least one thing in common, though—their members’ immersion in gym culture. Often, they met and bonded over a workout. If you’ll forgive the pun, they were fitness fanatics. Is there something about today’s preening and narcissistic gym culture that either nurtures terrorists or massages their self-delusions and desires?

More here.

An Interview with Deeyah

In Per Contra, an interview with the musician/songwriter Deeyah.

Slide1_19

[PC] You’ve stated that some people have called you a Hindu. In your opinion, why is it important for these critics to label you as other than your ethnic and religious identity?

It is a simple tactic of distraction. They think by using a smokescreen of deception they don’t have to deal the real issues at hand. I think it’s much easier to attempt insult or launch accusations rather than addressing what I’m saying. It’s a difficult thing for anyone to examine themselves and admit to the negative aspects of their own community. However, for people to pretend like nothing is going on and attempting to discredit anyone that speaks about any of the problems within our community is, in my opinion, only highlighting the fact that they are actually a part of the problem. My birth name is Deepika which is considered a traditional Hindu name. I was given this name as a sign of respect and gratitude to an elder Indian Hindu woman who nursed and took care of my Muslim mother while she was pregnant with me. To suggest that one has to have an Arabic or Persian name in order to qualify as a Muslim is quite ridiculous and ignorant. My mother, father and their ancestors are all Sunni Muslims. It is much easier to dismiss me and what I am saying by stripping me of my heritage in the hopes that either people will not pay any attention to what I’m saying or that I will get scared or disheartened by the treatment of these critics to where I will hopefully shut up. It’s all an attempt to silence and intimidate anyone that says anything they’re not supposed to say…

[PC] Why is it important to you to make it plain to the world that you are speaking as a Muslim woman?

Because it has become so important to some Muslim leaders and extremists to discredit me as a Muslim, I have had to justify my existence as a “Muslim artist”. I have now inadvertently become a sort of spokeswoman for a younger generation western-born Muslim women. I never really set out to do this. My heritage is something I’ve always been proud of but never forced onto people. Despite this I have never really been allowed to just be an artist and to get on with just music. My background has always become an issue (and a negative one at that) within the community.

The Short, Violent Life of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi

Mary Anne Weaver in the Atlantic Monthly:

Ph2006060800272On a cold and blustery evening in December 1989, Huthaifa Azzam, the teenage son of the legendary Jordanian-Palestinian mujahideen leader Sheikh Abdullah Azzam, went to the airport in Peshawar, Pakistan, to welcome a group of young men. All were new recruits, largely from Jordan, and they had come to fight in a fratricidal civil war in neighboring Afghanistan—an outgrowth of the CIA-financed jihad of the 1980s against the Soviet occupation there.

The men were scruffy, Huthaifa mused as he greeted them, and seemed hardly in battle-ready form. Some had just been released from prison; others were professors and sheikhs. None of them would prove worth remembering—except for a relatively short, squat man named Ahmad Fadhil Nazzal al-Khalaylah.

He would later rename himself Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

Once one of the most wanted men in the world, for whose arrest the United States offered a $25 million reward, al-Zarqawi was a notoriously enigmatic figure—a man who was everywhere yet nowhere. I went to Jordan earlier this year, three months before he was killed by a U.S. airstrike in early June, to find out who he really was, and to try to understand the role he was playing in the anti-American insurgency in Iraq.

More here.

Increasing the Non-Brahmins Priests in Hinduism

In Outlook India, will Brahmins lose their near-monopoly on the clergy in Hinduism?

The thorn in social revolutionary Periyar E.V. Ramasamy’s heart has been removed, claims Tamil Nadu chief minister M. Karunanidhi. On May 23, the Tamil Development, Culture and Religious Endowments department issued Government Order (GO) No. 118 by declaring that “Hindus belonging to all castes possessing suitable qualifications and training will be appointed as priests to Hindu temples”. This was in pursuance of a 2002 Supreme Court judgement upholding the appointment of a non-Brahmin as a priest in Kerala. Though political observers see it as a symbolic gesture, the move, if translated into action, could have important repercussions for the practice of Hinduism where priesthood has traditionally been a Brahmin preserve.

Close but impenetrable

From Lens Culture:

Munoz_13 Isabel Muñoz has always used her camera to move in close to her subjects — closer than we would permit ourselves. She’s done this so well with sensuous dancers in her series on the rituals of the Tango, Flamenco and traditional Oriental dance. She has captured exquisite “fragments” of the acts of intimacy and seduction with striking interplays of bodies, limbs, shadow and light.

In her most recent work, shown here, she has challenged herself even more by venturing into southern Ethiopia to photograph 21st century Surma, Nyangatom, Bodi, and Topossa tribal members. Some of the warriors, like the first one shown at right, kill their neighboring tribesmen as a matter of pride.

Working with a portable photo studio (three cameras, backdrops, generators and lights), Muñoz gets in close again, with striking photographs that are rich with details: the leather-like textures of skin, drips of sweat, patterns of scarification, piercing, mud and body paint, and elaborate decorative body art. But these are not intimate portraits. Her subjects stare directly into the camera with mask-like faces, fierce dignity and palpable distrust in their eyes. The effect is especially unnerving because the photographs and the people are so pristinely beautiful.

More here.

Robot sensors go touchy-feely

From Nature:Robots_1

Robots are one step closer to having a human sense of touch, thanks to a thin, flexible film that mimics the sensitivity of a human finger. The device may become useful in the next generation of robots and in automated tools used for microsurgery. Touch is one of the first senses that humans develop, but because of its complexity it has been one of the last to be tackled by robotics. Touch has to relay information about the surface of an object, and also the amount of pressure needed in order to grasp it.

Previous touch sensors have had big problems with rigidity and durability. When constructed out of hard materials such as silicon, they were not able to contour to the robotic ‘hand’, while the daily wear and tear of touching also tended to bend and scratch the delicate materials. Robots clearly need something “more like human skin,” says chemical engineer Ravi Saraf from the University of Nebraska, Lincoln. “And we’re getting there.”

More here.

3QD’s World Cup Analyst: Alex Cooley

The following is the text of an email from my friend Alex Cooley:

Soccer20ball202_2Another four years, another marker that we are sadly obsessed footy fans emailing our mates about a tournament in Germany. BUT IT’S HERE!

This year has been extra tough, what with coming back from our European junketts and actually having to teach and talk to students for a whole academic year. I apologize for the late notice this time (the Germans kick off in just a few hours), but I’ve been finishing my book ms. and actually earning my cushy ivory tower pay check. Tomorrow I’m off to Berlin where I will be sharing a flat with the charmingly belligerent Mark Blyth and some friends – please, if you haven’t heard from me by July come and unplaster me from the floor of that seedy drinking hole in Friedrichshain.

As you may all remember or hopefully not since some of you actually have lives, Cooley had a great World Cup last time round..the French failed to score, the Argies had to bow to the boot of Beckham, and the Yanks swept into the last 8 while making our greatest rivals spend more time worrying about head-butting Cobi Jones rather than defending our counterattack. That, plus the comedy provided by Italian and Spanish fans looking at a sea of South Korean fans chanting “Korea is a great nation..” 9,875 times a game. Brazil won again and that was a bit of a downer, but don’t fear..its not going to happen gain!

So, if you haven’t done so already, its time to get out your charts, spreadsheets and predictions – look at the picks below, then go to the bookies in the time that’s left and put your money on..exactly the opposite teams..its guaranteed..

GROUP A Germany, Poland, Ecuador and Costa RIca

Manager Juergen Klinsman is causing quite a stir with his carefree lifestyle, “have a nice day” smile and laid back attitude. Apparently Franz Beckenbauer and other members of the German FA establishment don’t appreciate Juergen sunning himself and picking loads of players who don’t play for Bayern Munich. Well, they may not have the top 5 team on paper, but they will have the top player in the tournament (Michael Ballack) who will single-handedly take this team very, very deep.

Poland is a very tough 2nd tier team and may even push the hosts for the top slot. Don’t pick Ecuador – they only qualified because they take massive points at home because of their high altitude. Costa Rica, sad to say as a CONCACAF fan, is weaker than 4 years ago when they played pretty well. Germany and Poland go through in that order.

GROUP B England, T&T, Paraguay and Sweden

Ah, Sven’s men come to conquer all!..instapundits like myself are a bit confused this year because, for the first time since the Beatles, England really have a remarkably loaded team..yikes. There are world class players at every position, except perhaps right back and in goal – and Gary Neville is OK too I guess… This midfield is frightening, especially if they find a way to click and solve the destroyer player that they lack. I also don’t really understand why David Beckham takes so much stick when all this guy does every tournament is to serve up at least 4 deadball goals. Beckham, Lampard, Cole and Gerrard may not quite be Brazilian, but they’re clearly second best. If these guys don’t progress it really will be a national tragedy. BTW – 6-7 deputy striker Peter Crouch has to start and score so we can watch him do the 80s “robot” dance and all mimic it as Kraftwerk’s greatest hits blast in our Berlin bars.

Hmphh..the Swedes have been going on about how they’re dark horses to win it all – and Lagerback has been more than a tad patronizing about some Group teams. I’m frankly not that impressed not matter who they have up-front. I don’t think they’ll get past Paraguay who will expose them at the back. Be smart, take the South Americans to come in second.

T&T will be making up the numbers, but these guys will be jacked for the England game – it won’t make too much of a difference, although if they mail it in they might just affect the goal difference among the top three,

England needs the top spot to avoid losing to the hosts on penalties in the second round. They go thru first, Paraguay second.

In fact, England go on to reach the FINAL – but they don’t win it…

GROUP C Argentina, Holland, Ivory Coast, Serbia and Montenegro

The more I look at this group, the sicker it looks – yeah, the US got a bit screwed, but this is on a another level.

Argentina has 19 world class players on their team – unfortunately for them they can only play 11 at a time. The attacking talent is overwhelming and Riquelme will certainly provide the spark that was missing with Veron and Aimar in the playmaking role 4 years ago. Everyone talks about Messi, but Carlos Tevez is fearsome and may be the best flat out talent in the Cup. Given that they had to endure Beckham-induced national shame 4 years ago, I’m not as keen to root against them this time. But I also think that they lack the grit to stick out close games and can fold like a cheap chair, as they did in the Confeds Cup final last year (Brazil) and in their not-so-friendly against England in Geneva in November. I think they go through, but just.

Ah, the Dutch. I would love to them and finally see the Oranje win it all but I can’t (note: this should mean putting big money on them!). I really like how Van Basten has cleaned house and gone with the younger guys – but the flip side of that is that they simply may not have the experience and savvy to stop a tough as nails Serbian team and the Ivory Coast. Holland does not go through from this group and may even finished fourth. Unfortunately for us, this will leave many sobbing and angry Dutch fans clogging up the bars and the mini-pizza stands. Sorry Hendrik!.

The Ivory Coast is loaded, I mean really stacked – I’ve seen these guys play twice and they are overwhelming. Yes, Drogba’s the guy up front (23 goals in 34 national team) but defensively they’ve shut everyone down as well – its scary but Kolo Toure may just be, well, one of the best defenders around. I think they match up well against both the Dutch and Argentinean back lines. GO ELEPHANTS!!

Oh and the Serbs. All they did was win their group (which included Spain and loads of other rough Balkan teams) and hardly even gave up a goal. And yet, we have them coming in 4th – something has to give here.

This group is very, very tough – hats off to whoever gets it right – I’m going with Argentina and Ivory Coast in that order.

GROUP D Mexico, Portugal, Iran and Angola

For all you Euro-snobs, please keep in mind that Mexico consistently goes through to second rounds and they won Italy’s group last time around. As a US fan, I loathe Rafael Marquez, but if he keeps his cool he is a top of the line center back. Borgetti may be the best header of the ball in the tournament, next to Brian McHead of course. I love to watch coach Lavolpe puffing away on his cigs on the sideline, looking utterly bedraggled and making snide remarks, but he has them playing well – they deserve their seeding and will show it.

As a half Greek, since 2004 I’ve become a big Portugal fan. As England well know, Big Phil Scolare may be the best manager in the game – he’s beaten England in the last 2 major tournaments as coach of Brazil and Portugal. Unlike last time when the Portuguese seemed outraged that a bunch of 19 year old Americans were sprinting past them instead of asking for autographs from Mr. Figo, these guys should be ready this time. But, I just don’t see them ever living up to their hype and talent, not in a truly scrappy game.

Angola I’ve never seen, but apparently they play with a more “Portuguese-like flair” or at least that’s the colonial spin I’ve been reading in europapers. Iran is pretty good and may take a point off the Figman and co.

However, after all is said and done, this group goes to official form – 1. Mexico, 2. Portugal. President Ahmedinajad doesn’t get to come to Germany for the second round…bummer.

GROUP E Italy, USA, Czech Republic, Ghana

OK – let me grant all of you Euro-snobs that the #5 FIFA ranking for the USA is inflated; BUT the Czechs ranked as #2 is even more preposterous. yes, they are good – they have a lovely midfield..I think Rossicky will do really well for Arsenal and I like Nedved’s little flicks and haircut. And at 6-8 it doesn’t really matter whether Koller can kick a ball (and he can). I know these guys are the Euro darlings, but repeat after me the words of the Prophet Bruce Arena – ” “soccer is a young man’s game” – and, by extension, the World Cup is a young [person’s] tournament. Of course I would prefer to get the Czechs all banged up as our 3rd game – but these guys have peaked..we’re not scared.

I’m telling all of you neutrals – you have to watch the US-Czech game. This will be a no-holds barred up and down attack-fest. I think the US can stun them, especially if the Czechs go into this with just Galasek at defensive midfield.

One of the quirks of this US team is that they have an abundance of quality left-sided midfielders. Bobby Convey in particular is an outstanding slashing player with a footballing brain to boot – PSV’s Beasley has more name recognition, but his form has been off. Both of them can fly, as can Eddie Johnson the young forward. Eddie Lewis slots in as left back and can still put in his laser crosses on the occasional overlap. Besides Convey, look for the impact of Clint “Deuce” Dempsey (yes he’s Texan) patrolling the right side and Oguchi Onyewu (aka “Gooch”) who has been the best central defender in the Belgian league over the last 2 years. This guy is phenomenal – athletic, 6-4, 200 pounds – and is learning to read the game better all the time. He’ll handle Koller and Luca Toni just fine.

The Italy game also doesn’t scare me either – yes, the Italians are class, but they are going to be sweating this match big time as the prospect of dropping points to the Yanks looms over them. Totti, Pirlo, Camaronesi – YAWN…Bruce Arena thinks that Italy’s outside backs are vulnerable to our speedsters. I agree – the loss of the injured Gatusso at defensive midfield may be a massive blow for containing US counterattacks. I think this game has draw written all over it, maybe 1-1.

I’m scared of the Ghana game. They are quicker than us (maybe the only team in the tournament that is) and have unbelievable central midfielders in Essien and Appiah. Frankly, we have no one who can stop Essien, unless 5-6 right back Steve Cherundolo bites off his ankle. This has a bigtime loss written all over it.

So in the end, my prediction is: an unprecedented 4 points for every team! As a result, we will go to goal difference and then goals scored. By our high scoring game against the Czechs, the US will claim 1st place with 4 points and will be followed by the always-lucky-at-the group stage Italians, leaving your hero Czechs and the unlucky Ghanians sitting it out.

Of course, you should all feel free to send me your howling laughter via email on Monday after Nedved scores a hat trick and Petr Cech saves a Donavan penalty.

But this is my “final answer”!

1. USA
2. Italy

MAJOR UPDATE!!! So Nicole (the most wonderful woman in the world who I absolutely do not deserve) actually got me an early birthday present – a ticket to the Czech-US game on June 12th. I get to go and heckle “Carol” Paborsky in person! WooWeeeeeeeeeeeee

GROUP F: Brazil, Japan, Australia, Croatia

Ok, I’m sick of these guys..”the beautiful game” and all of these dumb Nike commercials showing a buck-toothed 10- year old Ronaldhino skipping about – even worse is that silly Eric Cantona radio-station hijacking ad in honor of these guys..I never thought I’d miss that Nike ship.

So Jim, Mark and I watched the blue and gold absolutely destroy Argentina last summer in Frankfurt. Adriano may well be the only footballer to play more like a cartoon than his actual Nintendo/Playstation character- TURN, BANG, SCORE…repeat. yes, these guys are loaded, yes they’ll win every game in the 1st round. No, I will never become a Brazil-jocker. Go ahead and get a shirt with “Kaka” on it, not for me, thanks. Repeat after me, “it’s a young man’s game.” Cafu and Roberto Carlos are in their mid-30s – that’s the weakness.

Speaking of our Down Under mates, everyone seems really up on the Aussies and their “competitive spirit”. Funny, if these guys were Uruguay they would be denounced as dirty cheats by the Europress; ah those lovable Aussies..KICK. But I think that the FIFA instructions to referees to clamp down on Aussie rules tackles and the use of lethal weapons may leave them rather exposed. I am NOT on the Waltzing Matilda bandwagon. Take Japan instead – they’re technical and quick and Zico is every bit the tactician as Hiddink. Croatia makes up the numbers this time.

1. Brazil
2. Japan

Brazil wins the group – but then falls to Italy in the 2nd round (or even the Czechs)!!!!!!!!!

GROUP G: France, Switzerland, South Korea, Togo

Everyone is talking about France as a sure lock for 1st. Why? Seriously, is Zidane going to take a miracle youth drug and once gain start covering some ground? The France-Togo game should determine 2nd, not Switzerland – ROK. The Swiss are very tight and confident – they have been playing great stuff and won a tough playoff against Turkey. I think they snag 1st place in the group and leave France in second.

1. Switzerland
2. France

GROUP H: Spain, Ukraine, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia

My dark horse in the tournament is Ukraine. I watched them play in Turkey where they just put on a counter-attacking clinic in Istanbul – 3-0. Its not just Shevchenko. They are tight at the back and plug spaces quickly. An East European-style team always progresses to the quarterfinals. Most people have the Czechs, but now you know now that you should pick Ukraine instead. Spain only gets second, but that actually takes some pressure off them in the knockout phase..oh and the Ukraine game against the Saudis gives Sheva the Golden Boot – ping, ping, ping, ping…

1. Ukraine
2. Spain

2nd ROUND MATCH-UPS

So, then, here’s how it will progress..

Germany X – hosts safely thru (2-0) in a repeat of 2002 last 16.
Paraguay

Argentina X Big Phil’s run of finals ends and we don’t have to see Luis Figo Portugal all sweaty and indignant at the end of games – hurray! (3-1)

England X – Tough match, but England win these 2nd rounders usually (2-1)
Poland

Ivory Coast X – This one’s the stunner. Viva los elephants!! (2-1)
Mexico

USA X – Arena’s guys through to the final 8 again..yes, the draw helped! (2-0)
Japan

Brazil
Italy X – the game of the tournament, the Italians do it – Nike stock plummets.
(3-2)

Switzerland
Spain X Spain crumbles at this stage usually; this time they don’t
(2-1)

Ukraine X – Ukraine is better.. really..(3-1)
France

Q-Finals:

Germany 1 Argentina 1 (6-5 after penalties)- Ballack tugs Sorin’s hair for leverage and then towers over him to slam home the last minute tying goal. The game goes to penalties and, well, we all know what happens next..

USA (er..Czechs) 0 Spain 2- Completely unfair Spanish handballs deny Johnson, Dempsey and Eddie Pope clear goals. The foolish and weak Raul takes advantage of the treachery to end the Yank dream.

England 2 Ivory Coast 1 (AET) – England sweat into extra-time in the quarterfinal before Rooney’s magical foot detaches itself to slot home a winner

Italy 0 Ukraine 1 I’m telling you, these guys are good,,,

Semis:

Germany 2 Spain 1

England 2 Ukraine 0

FINAL

GERMANY 2, England 1.

Sad but true. Michael Owen wiggles thru for a 1st minute stunner. Sven decides that the game is won and brings on Hargeaves and Carrick in place of Lampard and Gerrard to bunker for the last 80 minutes. The ploy almost works, but in the 91st minute Theo Walcott hears his Mum calling for him and turns abruptly to knock in a hideous own-goal. Then just a minute later, Germany do a Man Utd-1999 and the mercurial Ballack outjumps a knackered Terry to send the host nation into rapture! The greatest World Cup final ever ends in English misery, while 4 million Berliners rush for a celebratory doner and spot in the queue to get into their local techno club.

On my way to the airport on June 11, a full 36 hours after this great national tragedy, I still see piles of English fans scattered all over the motorway to Tegel sobbing into their stale Newcastle cans.

***
So just to recap – I like Germany to win it, England to get to the final. Ukraine’s Shevchenko gets the golden boot for top scorer.

My “best bets” for surprises are Ukraine and Ivory Coast as well as Brazil getting knocked out in the second round to the Group E second team.

So you see, an American will win the World Cup after all! Juergen will bask in the glory, move back to Florida, and then take over his adopted country’s team..oh, and even if we don’t make it out of the mini-group of death this time, there is this guy named Freddy Adu who can walk on water and turn lead into gold. And in 2010 we really are going to win it all and the rest of the world will just have to deal with it..

Man, I am going to Gelsenkirchen on Monday and am PUMPED UP!!

More from Berlin soon!!!!!!!!!

Alex, we look forward to it. Thanks. Drink a lot of water and take two asprin before bed.

Aula 2006 ─ Movement: Alastair Curtis

NOTE: All posts at 3QD related to the Aula 2006 ─ Movement event, including this one, will be collected on this page. Bookmark it to stay on top of the Aula meeting at all times for the next week.

Alastaircurtis_1The second keynote speech at the Aula 2006 ─ Movement public event will be given by Alastair Curtis. I want to give him just a very brief introduction here.

Effective April 1, 2006, Alastair Curtis is Nokia’s new Head of Design. He replaces the redoubtable Frank Nuovo, who will now be overseeing Nokia’s luxury lines of handsets. Alastair is no newcomer to Nokia, having started working there in 1993, having obtained a Master of Arts degree in Industrial Design Engineering from the Royal College of Art in London, as well as a Diploma of Engineering from the Imperial College and a Bachelor’s degree in Industrial Design from Brunel University. In 1996, Alastair was named Senior Designer and in 1997 he moved to Los Angeles to as Global Operations Manager of Nokia’s new Design center there. This was at a time when design was becoming more and more important as a distinguishing feature in mobile telephones, and many of the main manufacturers were racing to invest in expanding their design operations.

After his appointment as Nokia’s Head of Design, Alastair said:

Having a multidisciplinary global team will enhance our ability to combine great user experience design with the latest technology, to create a world-class portfolio for consumers. Ease-of-use and style will continue to be central to our design work and the Nokia brand.

Alastair will be delivering a talk entitled “People Moving” at the Aula event, which I am sure Morgan and I will have more to say about next week.

Blogging the World Cup

13hrs and 20 minutes from the first game of the 2006 World Cup, here is a blog (or rather 34 of them) reporting nearly every detail. There are, of course, many, many, many blogs, leading me to wonder whether this will be the most blogged event in history. Betting markets meanwhile are heavily favoring Brazil. I’ll be watching the Germany v. Costa Rica game at Loreley in the Lower East Side with my friend E.Z. (of German extraction), who dejectedly said, “this is probably the only game we’ll win.” But the mood in Germany appears to be exceedingly festive (potential racist attacks notwithstanding). From World Cup Blog:

Fan Fest Berlin was a blast. The strip that runs from the Brandenburg Gate was full of people, old and young, all out for a good time. Plenty of street side bars and snack places selling bratwurst and other German favorites. In front of the Brandenburg Gate a stage was set up and the acts included Brasilian samba band Olodum, who were perfect for the street festival audience. The atmosphere in front of the Brandenburg Gate was of excitement and anticipation. Up to this point I have not seen many Germans wearing their nation’s colors, but at Fan Fest they started to come out.

One great thing here in Berlin is the civilized nature of life. People are cool and there is not a ‘drunken soccer fan’ mentality, as there is in other countries. Of course people here would like to see Germany win, but they also appreciate good football and are open enough to give credit where it’s due.

Gourevitch on Darfur

Philip Gourevitch has a piece on Darfur and intervention, in this weeks New Yorker.

Given the Bush Administration’s contempt for the U.N., and the U.N.’s own dysfunction, it is a measure of how low Darfur’s situation ranks among the Administration’s priorities that it is willing to let the Security Council handle it. And it is a measure of how forsaken Darfur is that Bush has been more actively engaged with its crisis than many Western leaders. (Last month, when the World Food Program, finding itself strapped for funds, cut food rations for Darfuri refugees, Bush noted that the United States, unlike other nations, had met its financial commitment.) Still, one can’t help thinking that the words “Not on my watch” originally carried a bigger promise.

The interventionist impulse—whether it is espoused by liberal humanitarians or neocon hawks—is not much in favor these days. Anti-genocide activists argue that Darfuris should not be made to pay for mistakes made in Iraq, and that “saving Darfur” can redeem America’s international honor. But how do we know that, if we take action, we will do the right thing and do it successfully? “Tough talk” aside, Darfur presents no more of a cakewalk than Iraq did. A major ground invasion would be required to stop the janjaweed’s horse- and camel-mounted killers—and advocates of intervention insist that air power would be needed as well. There are dozens of ethnic groups in Darfur, and at least three fractious rebel movements, in addition to the janjaweed, the Army, and the Air Force, and it is not clear which of them would be on our side, or whose side we would want to be on.

Conservatives Against Intelligent Design

This is welcomed, even if I disagree with their positions on most of the salient political issues of our time.

Conservatives Against Intelligent Design (CAID) was founded to give a voice to Republicans, Independent Conservatives, and Libertarians across the country who stand opposed to the teaching of ‘intelligent design’ and other forms of creationism in the classroom. In recent years Republican legislators at all levels of government have authored, sponsored, and voted for various anti-evolution bills with perceived immunity, confident that those who vote for them are creationists like themselves. CAID is intended as a wake-up call to these legislators, to remind them that the teaching of evolution is not a partisan issue, but rather one of the separation between theology and science.

CAID holds that there is no conflict between evolution and religion because each speaks to a different level of understanding and to a different level of explanation: Namely empirical versus metaphysical. Neither threatens nor invalidates the other. However, by their very nature alternative theories like ‘intelligent design’ rely on the supposition of a metaphysical creator and therefore stand outside the domain of rational empiricism. Science–being based upon the latter–has no room within it for theological supposition; therefore such theories must remain outside the science classroom, being more suitable for discussion in philosophy courses.

Darwinian evolution has continued to gain empirical and theoretical support in the nearly 150 years since the original publication of Origin of Species. Although scientists continue to debate the specifics of evolutionary pattern and process, these represent attempts to refine and clarify extant theory rather than supplant or disprove either evolution or natural selection as the dominant mechanism of change.

After Long Ethical Review, Harvard Moves Into Research Cloning

In Science:

After more than 2 years of what Harvard Provost Steven Hyman called “the most extensive ethical and scientific review in recent memory,” Harvard University researchers have been given the go-ahead to use cloning to create disease-specific lines of human embryonic stem cells.

Experts say research cloning–known as somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT)–will give scientists a far more effective tool for studying diseases such as diabetes and Parkinson’s. But some people oppose the technique for religious and philosophical reasons because it involves creating and destroying fertilized eggs, and the procedure is banned in some states. There are no reports of success with SCNT, now that the research of Korean scientist Woo Suk Hwang was discredited (ScienceNOW, 12 May).